How cool will it be in New York City before the extreme heat moves in?
As we track the ups and downs of the incoming hot weather, prediction markets at Kalshi experts are expecting a 99% chance that temperatures will remain at around 87 to 88 degrees, just before things flare up.
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NEW YORK CITY, NY – As millions of people brace for unbearably hot summer temperatures this week, the Northeast is expected to experience some of the worst conditions leading up to the holiday weekend.
Popular locations such as New York City will face days of relentless heat starting on Wednesday, with temperatures exceeding 100 on multiple days.
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New Yorkers could experience the hottest day in nearly 15 years, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 04: People enjoy an unusually warm day in New York City as temperatures reach the low 80s on June 04, 2025 in New York City. New York City and some surrounding areas are under an air quality alert on Wednesday due to hundreds of wildfires burning across Canada, which are sending smoke into parts of the U.S. Temperatures are expected to surpass 90 degrees on Thursday.
(Spencer Platt / Getty Images)
"There have been at least 17 occurrences of seeing back-to-back 100-degree days since 1869," the FOX Forecast Center said. "This week will likely be the first since 2011 if New York City hits 100 degrees on Thursday and Friday, which is currently forecasted."
Daytime temperatures will soar to 90 degrees or into the triple digits, with it feeling like 110 to 115 degrees during the hottest parts of the day this week.
New York City is a hotspot for extreme heat alerts because, within the big city, concrete and asphalt trap heat, creating the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI).
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 29: People try to stay cool on the sweltering streets of Manhattan as the region experiences another heatwave on July 29, 2025 in New York City. Temperatures are expected to reach into the high 90s with a heat index well above 100 degrees.
(Spencer Platt / Getty Images)
This occurs when a city experiences much warmer temperatures than rural areas.
If you travel to a rural area, it is typically covered with grass and plants, unlike a city that traps heat.
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 04: People enjoy a warm afternoon in the Dumbo neighborhood of Brooklyn on June 04, 2026 in New York City. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90's in New York on Friday and Saturday as the city gears up for the summer season.
(Spencer Platt / Getty Images)
As we track the ups and downs of the incoming hot weather, prediction markets at Kalshi are expecting a 99% chance that temperatures will remain at around 87 to 88 degrees today, just before things flare up.
There is a less likely 2% chance that temperatures could rise above 89 degrees, small but pleasant news for people dreading the significant increase in heat.
It is just a taste of what is to come for the remainder of the week, as the Big Apple is engulfed in an Extreme Heat Warning starting Wednesday afternoon through Independence Day.
Be sure to properly prepare for the unbearable heat and drink plenty of fluids when celebrating during the holiday weekend.