UPDATED Sunday at 9 a.m.
The Tropical Disturbance officially called Invest #95L is a robust cluster of thunderstorms trekking west across the very warm tropical Atlantic. The system shows some signs of organization but has a ways to go.
The National Hurricane Center gives it a medium chance to develop in the next couple of days, but the odds of the system organizing into a tropical depression or, likely, Tropical Storm Lee around the middle of next week are high.
The consensus of the computer forecasts is that a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Lee will be in the vicinity of the northeastern Caribbean islands or the waters to the north at the end of the week.
The exact track seems mainly dependent on how quickly the system can organize and intensify over the next several days, and the strength of the blocking high-pressure system to the north. Weaker high pressure will allow likely-Lee to bend to the north and miss the islands. It’s too close to call while the system is still developing.
Everyone on Puerto Rico and in the northeastern Caribbean will need to stay informed late in the week.
Farther north in the Atlantic, Tropical Storms Gert and Katia are still hanging on, but this is expected to be their last day. In any case, they will not affect land.
Another robust disturbance will move off Africa in the next day or two. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a slight chance of developing. There’s no indication at the current time that it will be a threat to land, but we’ll watch it to be sure.
This week, we’ll be focused on Invest #95L as it tracks toward the islands. Although there won’t be much to see for the next few days.