Development odds increase for central Atlantic tropical disturbance

The National Hurricane Center is also watching a couple of other disturbances in the Atlantic, one of which is expected to develop once it reaches the Eastern Pacific.

As expected, the tropics are heating up as the peak of the hurricane season is about a month and a half away.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two distinct areas of potential tropical development over the next week, with one disturbance in the central Atlantic and the other exiting Central America heading towards the eastern Pacific.

The NHC has given both disturbances low chances of development over the next few days, but the probabilities greatly increase around the week timeframe.


Disturbance in open Atlantic has high chance of development

A tropical disturbance far out in the Atlantic has again seen an increase in chances of it developing into at least a tropical depression. 

Shower activity has increased since Thursday in association with the tropical wave located almost midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. There is a 20% chance of development over the next two days. The NHC currently puts the formation chance through seven days at 70%.

A tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

The storm is moving toward the prime hurricane belt but has a mass of dry air ahead of it, according to FOX Weather Hurricane Specialst Bryan Norcross

"Based on current forecasts, the first chance the system would have to develop comes over the weekend when the disturbance is about 3/4 of the way to the vicinity of the northeastern Caribbean islands," Norcross said.

The disturbance poses no threat to the U.S., but the FOX Forecast Center is monitoring the system as it swirls west away from Africa.

A current look at a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean.
(FOX Weather)


Tropical disturbance over Central America may develop in Pacific Ocean

A complex situation is unfolding in Central America, where a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is impacting Nicaragua and Honduras before potentially developing into a tropical cyclone as it enters the Pacific Ocean.

According to the NHC, the odds for development in the eastern Pacific are about 80% over the next week.

The disturbance could eventually become a tropical depression as it heads west-northwest, paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico.

A current look at a tropical disturbance over Central America.
(FOX Weather)