Atlantic goes eerily quiet at peak of hurricane season as El Niño shuts down tropical activity
Currently, there are no active storms or areas being monitored for tropical development as El Niño continues to suppress activity.
El Niño silences Atlantic as climatological peak of hurricane season arrives
The climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season arrives today, September 10, yet the basin remains eerily quiet, largely due to El Niño’s influence. Wind shear remains high across the entire Main Development Region (MDR), while Saharan dust and low instability are severely limiting the numerous tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
THE TAKEAWAY
- The Atlantic basin is quiet during hurricane season due to El Niño.
- In past years, Sept. 10 typically marks the busiest time of the Atlantic hurricane season.
- However, in the Pacific Basin, hurricane activity continues to be red-hot.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season arrived Thursday, but experts say the basin is eerily quiet.
Currently, there are no active storms or areas being monitored for tropical development as El Niño continues to suppress activity.
In past years, September 10 typically marks the busiest time of the Atlantic hurricane season, when conditions are favorable for tropical systems to form.
However, this year, the basin is still inactive as wind shear remains high across the entire Main Development Region (MDR), while Saharan dust and low instability are severely limiting the numerous tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
These conditions are typical during El Niño, a climate pattern that tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while causing the Pacific to be more active.
That has certainly borne out to this point, with the Pacific producing 16 named storms, including six hurricanes, three of which have reached major hurricane status.
The tropics remain active as we head closer to mid-September.
On average, the Eastern Pacific produces about 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major (Category 3+) hurricanes.
Damage from Hurricane Lowell in Poipu, Hawaii, on Sep. 8. 2026. (Jennifer Hill / FOX Weather)
During El Niño years since 1990, those averages rise to approximately 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes, highlighting a measurable increase in activity.
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In the Atlantic, because of the unfavorable environment, no tropical development is expected over the next seven days.
With no areas to watch or active storms across the basin at the peak, Thursday could mark the first time the entire Atlantic Basin has been completely devoid of tropical activity at this point in the season since tracking began in 2009.
Furthermore, the season’s first hurricane, if it forms, will form later than any first hurricane on record since the beginning of the satellite era (1960).
Historically, in the satellite era, the latest first hurricane formed on Sept. 11, with Hurricane Gustav in 2002 and Hurricane Humberto in 2013 both reaching hurricane strength on that date.
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Even looking ahead to mid-to-late September, conditions across much of the MDR are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical development.
"In the official record book, which goes back to 1851, 1907 and 1914 had no hurricanes," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said.
"But the point is a year without hurricanes is meteorologically possible," Norcross added.
A motorist drives down a road in the wake of Hurricane Ida on September 4, 2021 in Grand Isle, Louisiana. (Sean Rayford / Getty Images)
Strong wind shear across the central and western MDR, combined with persistent Saharan dust, is expected to continue to keep the atmosphere dry and hostile to tropical systems.
Tropical waves will continue moving off the African coast, but most are expected to struggle to organize and eventually fizzle.
There is one area that could become more favorable for development later this month.
A pocket of conditions conducive to tropical development could emerge off the Southeast coast, potentially involving a disturbance that develops along stalling weather fronts.
In this aerial view, a person walks through flood waters that inundated a neighborhood after Hurricane Milton came ashore on October 10, 2024, in Punta Gorda, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images / Getty Images)
The Climate Prediction Center has highlighted the region in its three-week tropical outlook as an area to watch for later in September.
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However, assigning a low chance of development in this region is fairly standard for this time of year, and some potential would likely exist even under otherwise hostile conditions.
The lack of activity is also reflected in the season's extremely low Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
ACE is a measurement developed by Colorado State University that accounts for both the intensity and duration of tropical systems.
So far, the Atlantic has produced just five named storms, all of which remained tropical storms, generating only 4.4 ACE.
By this point in an average Atlantic hurricane season, ACE would typically be around 51. An average full Atlantic hurricane season produces approximately 122.5 ACE.
Damage in Poipu, Hawaii, from Hurricane Lowell on Tuesday, Sep. 8, 2026. (FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Lowell alone has generated 42.1 ACE. That is nearly 10 times the amount produced by the entire Atlantic Basin so far this season.
For now, the Atlantic remains unusually quiet at the very time of year when hurricane activity typically reaches its peak.
With El Niño strengthening, strong wind shear dominating the MDR and Saharan dust limiting tropical waves, forecasters expect the Atlantic to remain largely suppressed in the coming days.