NFL Week 7: Don't pick the underdogs as coastal storm, weather conditions hinder chances

The New York Giants have been underdogs pretty much all season, while teams like the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been early favorites to be in Super Bowl contention.

Week 7 in the NFL features several teams looking to continue their recent success as underdogs. 

As a surprise to most, the New York Giants are 4-0, making the team an outright underdog this season. 

And for the first time all season, San Francisco might not be the pick to win against the Chiefs, but with the surprising pickup of Christian McCaffrey, things could soon change for the 49ers.

The biggest underdog to win outright this season came last week when the Pittsburgh Steelers upset Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

This week, the Buccaneers are the first double-digit road favorite all season against the Carolina Panthers.  

Thanks to SportsWeather, we can pick games based on how teams have historically performed in certain weather conditions. 

SportsWeather has its own metrics system that compiles historical game-time weather data and meshes it against both NFL teams' and players' historical performance. All data is from the last 14 seasons. 


So let's see if the week of the underdog will continue.  

GAME 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers - 1 p.m. Eastern on FOX 

Tampa Bay is the first double-digit road favorite this season. Teams favored by at least seven points on the road are 0-2-1 outright this season. 

Heading into late October, with a warm-up for the East Coast, the game-time temperature is forecast to feel like 70 degrees with slight winds blowing at 7 mph. 

In the last three seasons, under those conditions, Tampa Bay is 14-11 and 23-11, respectively, while Carolina struggles with records of 5-19 and 7-31, respectively. 

Even with a 0% chance of any precipitation, that doesn't seem to help Carolina much, as they hold a record of 8-27 when playing games with a 0% chance of precipitation. Tampa Bay stands at 28-14 in those same situations. 

PICK: gives Tampa Bay a major edge and predicts them to beat Carolina.


GAME 2: New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars - 1 p.m. Eastern on FOX 

New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll is the third coach in the Super Bowl era to win outright in each of his first four games as an underdog, but that may be coming to an end this Sunday. 

Weather conditions will be ideal in Jacksonville. It's forecast to have a feels-like temperature of 76 degrees at the start of the game with a 0% chance of precipitation. When it's forecast to be 76 degrees, the Giants are 40-48, and the Jaguars are 36-65. When there's a 0% chance of precipitation, New York is 77-90, while Jacksonville is 51-116.  

There will also be a breeze in the air as winds are expected at 9 mph. When the winds are blowing at 9 mph, historically, New York is 57-77 and Jacksonville has a record of 39-86.  

PICK: gives the Jaguars the weather edge and predicts them to defeat New York, ending their streak of winning outright as underdogs. 

GAME 3: Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders - 1 p.m. Eastern on FOX 

A coastal storm churning up the East Coast could impact the Packers vs. Commanders, as rain could be in play throughout the matchup. 

Currently, there's a 60% chance of rain at game time in Landover, MD. Under those conditions, the Packers are 110-57-2, while Washington is 72-98-1. 

Temperature-wise, it won't be too bad as it's forecast to feel like 61 degrees (Records - Green Bay: 46-31; Washington: 42-49-1) with winds at 6 mph (Records - Green Bay: 83-43-1; Washington: 46-78-1)

PICK: gives the Packers the weather edge and predicts them to defeat Washington.  


GAME 4: Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers - 4:25 p.m. Eastern on FOX 

No surprise that this is the first game of the season that the 49ers are underdogs.

With the recent acquisition of one of the league's top running backs, Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers might just edge out Kansas City this weekend. According to reports, there's a chance that McCaffrey could travel to San Francisco and start Sunday and be a dominant option against the Chiefs. 

Even without Pro Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has shown why he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league. 

A feels-like temperature of 61 degrees is forecast around game time with winds at 11 mph. In those weather conditions, the Chiefs are 64-44 in games where the feels-like temperature was 61 degrees and 40-36 in games where the winds were blowing at 11 mph, while the 49ers stand at 50-52-1 and 20-24-1, respectively. 

Currently, there's a 0% chance of precipitation, where Kansas City is 109-88 and the 49ers are 75-65-1 in those games. 

PICK: gives Kansas City the weather edge and predicts them to defeat the 49ers.  

So it looks like the week of the underdogs will come to an end, at least in these four games.

Make sure to check out just before the game for any late-breaking conditions that could impact the outcome, as the weather can oftentimes change.