Dreaming of a White Christmas? Old Farmer's Almanac predicts 16 states could have a wintry holiday
The Old Farmer's Almanac says it makes long-range weather predictions based on a "a unique formula that combines three scientific disciplines: solar science, climatology, and meteorology."
Winter could feature a tug-of-war pattern between the Polar Vortex and Super El Niño
This winter could be one for the record books as Super El Niño and the Polar Vortex go head-to-head. With a predicted warmer winter ahead, the Polar Vortex may break down earlier than ever, sending cold air into the U.S. in late November or December. Only time will tell if Super El Niño with its warmer-than-average winter will come out on top or if the Polar Vortex will win out.
THE TAKEAWAY
- The Old Farmer's Almanac is calling for White Christmas in the Rockies and in New England.
- The Old Farmer's Almanac says it makes long-range weather predictions based on a "a unique formula that combines three scientific disciplines: solar science, climatology, and meteorology."
- NOAA is monitoring a potential upcoming battle between cold arctic air due to a disruption in the Polar Vortex and an increase in mild Pacific air across the country due to El Niño.
While forecasters are monitoring a rapidly strengthening El Niño climate pattern, with a Super El Niño expected to be declared later this year, the Old Farmer's Almanac has released some of its winter predictions and is calling for a White Christmas across the Intermountain West and the Northeast this year.
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According to the Almanac, parts of 16 states are expected to have more than an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning: Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
The Old Farmer's Almanac says it makes long-range weather predictions based on a "a unique formula that combines three scientific disciplines: solar science, climatology, and meteorology." It also says it looks at historical weather patterns and climate data to make long-range forecasts.
The company says the first almanac was published in 1792 and contained astronomical data and long-range weather predictions.
COULD SUPER EL NIÑO INFLUENCE THE POLAR VORTEX TO DO SOMETHING IT'S NEVER DONE BEFORE THIS WINTER?
Additionally, the Almanac said there is a "chance of a White Christmas" across parts of the Plains, the Midwest and Appalachians, including: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina.
FILE - WILKES BARRE, PA - DECEMBER 16: A man walks his dog near an illuminated Christmas tree during heavy snowfall on December 16, 2020 in Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania. Winter Storm Gail is expected to bring more than a foot of snow in parts of the Northeast. ((Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images) / Getty Images)
Meanwhile, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects a warmer-than-average November for much of the entire Northern Tier across the country.
This comes amid a very early-season disruption of the Polar Vortex, which usually signals the arrival of cold arctic air across parts of the Lower 48.
HISTORIC POLAR VORTEX DISRUPTION COULD ARRIVE EARLIER THAN EVER. HERE'S WHAT IT MEANS FOR WINTER
Polar Vortex vs. El Niño (FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
However, it can take several weeks for those changes to work their way down and influence the jet stream and larger weather patterns, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Furthermore, any cold air that does sink down to the surface will also have to contend with mild Pacific air that's being ushered across the country by the jet stream, which is being strengthened by El Niño.