What's the difference between a hurricane making a direct hit and landfall?
Forecasts are calling for a possible direct hit on Kauai, but that does not mean the hurricane will make landfall on the island. Here is how they're different.
Hurricane Lowell could make rare direct hit on Hawaii
‼️ INCOMING IMPACT: FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross shares an update on Hurricane Lowell as it tracks towards Hawaii, possibly making a rare, direct hit to the state.
Hurricane Lowell could make a rare, direct hit on Hawaii, bringing heavy rain, flash flooding, gusty winds and damaging surf to the islands.
POWERFUL CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LOWELL TRACK SHIFT COULD CAUSE RARE, DIRECT HIT ON HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
But while forecasts are calling for a possible direct hit on Kauai, that does not mean the hurricane will make landfall on the island.
So, what’s the difference?
Lowell direct hit explainer. (FOX Weather)
What is a direct hit?
According to the FOX Forecast Center, a direct hit occurs when the center of a tropical cyclone passes within a distance equal to the storm’s radius of maximum winds.
That exact distance depends on which side of the storm’s track a location is on.
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For locations on the left-hand side of the storm’s track, a direct hit occurs when the center passes within a distance equal to the radius of maximum winds, but on the right-hand side, the distance is twice the radius of maximum winds.
Satellite view shows Hurricane Lowell churning in the Central Pacific south of Hawaii’s Big Island, with a distinct eye and major hurricane strength. The storm’s northward trajectory placed the northern island of Kauai at risk of destructive winds, flooding rains, and hazardous surf. ((Photo by Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2026) / Getty Images)
In Lowell’s case, the islands are on the right-hand side of the track, which means the storm will qualify as a direct hit if it passes within about 90 miles. If the islands were on the left-hand side, it would require a distance of 45 miles.
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What is landfall?
A hurricane makes landfall when the center of the storm crosses the coastline. That means the center of the storm moves from the ocean onto land.
Satellite imagery of Hurricane Lowell. (CIRA / FOX Weather)
A storm does not have to make landfall to bring dangerous conditions to an area. Hurricane-force winds, flooding, storm surge and damaging surf can extend well away from the center of a hurricane.
What can Hawaii expect from Lowell?
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Lowell remains a powerful Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Lowell’s track shifted farther east early Monday, bringing the storm closer to Hawaii’s western islands. The National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Oahu, the state’s most populated island. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Kauai County and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument.
Heavy rain associated with Lowell has already triggered flash flooding on Oahu, while damaging surf is pounding the southern shores.
Lowell is expected to bring more rain, flash flooding, gusty winds and dangerous surf across the Hawaiian Islands as it makes its closest approach late Monday into early Tuesday.
The storm is forecast to gradually weaken as it encounters cooler waters and stronger wind shear, but it is expected to remain a hurricane during its closest approach to Hawaii.