Brewing Super El Niño could turn the California coast into a summer hotspot for great white sharks

A brewing super El Niño isn’t just set to rattle weather and fuel the start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season—it may also push great white sharks farther up the California coast.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that ushers in warmer-than-average surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean – opening the door for different species of sharks to venture closer and further north to the West Coast this summer.

"I think it's going to be a sharky summer off California this year," said Chris Lowe, professor of Marine Biology at Cal State, Long Beach, and Director of the Shark Lab in the Department of Biological Sciences.

With warmer surface waters, sharks that typically reside in the warmer waters of Baja California could venture north to Southern California and beyond.

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Typically, great white, mako, and thresher sharks use the Southern California coast as an important habitat for nursing their youth. 

During strong El Niño events, warmer waters reduce nutrient upwelling and overall productivity, prompting these species to shift farther north along the coast, Lowe said.

Similarly, warmer waters open the door to different species that otherwise wouldn't venture to the California coast, like bull sharks and tiger sharks. 

"We always tell people when we get these unusual weather events that they really have to keep an eye out for species they don't normally see along their beaches," Lowe said.

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Sharks have species-specific thermal ranges that influence where they swim. Great white sharks often move northward or offshore when coastal waters warm.

"So what we expect is places off Baja where there are big white shark nurseries, those sharks might get moved into Southern California, and some of those Southern California white sharks might get moved up to Central California if the water gets too warm, which we suspect is going to be a cooker," Lowe said.

Typically, juvenile white sharks begin appearing in the spring, but this year they were observed as early as February. Lowe said researchers attribute this shift to a record-breaking heat wave that brought unusually high ocean temperatures to the West Coast.

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While warmer waters invite white sharks to venture farther north, they’re also rolling out the welcome mat for a longer stay.

July and August are typically the peak months for white shark activity in California, Lowe expects that peak to extend into the fall this year.

On the East Coast, Lowe said the El Niño weather pattern could push sharks that reside in Florida further north for the same reason. 

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Don't flip out though – just because shark activity might increase, doesn't mean your beach days are finished. 

White shark sightings are a regular occurrence in California and shark attacks are extremely rare.

While most people pray they never encounter the ocean’s apex predators, great white sharks do not consider humans prey.

According to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife, since 1950, there have been less than 250 shark incidents in California involving many species of sharks, the vast majority of which involved white sharks.

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While the Super El Niño could usher sharks further up the California coast, there are numerous ways to mitigate shark encounters.

Lowe advises staying aware of your surroundings and paying attention to wildlife activity, such as schools of fish or diving seabirds. 

Swimmers should avoid murky water, where visibility is low, and opt to stay in groups at beaches with lifeguards on duty.