Updated Thursday 7:20 a.m. ET
There are two disturbances of note in the tropics. One is just moving off Africa into the tropical Atlantic, and the other is just approaching the Caribbean islands. Neither system is likely to encounter a fertile environment to develop in the next few days, but by late next week, both systems might find more conducive conditions.
Disturbance #1 just east of the Caribbean is a broad, ill-defined cluster of showers. It will move into the Caribbean Sea tomorrow and mosey on toward the west. The upper-level winds are likely to limit any attempts at organization for the next few days, but toward the middle or the end of next week, the atmospheric pattern is forecast to become more conducive for development in the western Caribbean.
Forecasts for ill-defined disturbances like this one are always iffy and likely to change. It’s uncertain where thunderstorms might consolidate if they do. Until that happens, there is no clear system to track.
Disturbance #2 is a large cluster of thunderstorms just moving from Africa into the Atlantic. It will initially be battling dry air, but later next week, it might tap into enough moisture that thunderstorms can persist. That’s a requirement for systems to develop a defined circulation.
In both cases, long-computer forecast models show mixed signals on what’s going to happen a week from now, but it’s not worth the energy to sort through them. The specific forecasts have no meaning anyway. We can see, however, that the weather pattern looks more conducive for tropical development by the end of next week.
It will be super unusual to go the whole month of August without a named storm, especially in a year with a well-established La Niña pattern in the Pacific. But there’s no reason the think that the atmospheric conditions that support tropical development won’t align in the near future.
Whether it happens next week or the week after is an open question, but the odds favor hurricane season kicking in soon.