Updated at 2 p.m. Eastern: A robust tropical disturbance has moved across the African coast into the Atlantic. The atmospheric environment over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic is reasonably conducive to the system acquiring an organized circulation.
The National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a medium chance of becoming at least a tropical depression this week.
Looking ahead, a strong cold front for August will lodge near the east coast of the U.S. late in the week. The associated steering flow will prevent any systems from approaching land, deflecting them to the north into cooler water.
So even if the disturbance were to organize and fight off the dry, dusty air across the Atlantic, indications are it would not be a threat.
We are approaching the time of year when the Saharan dust normally starts to wane, and disturbances moving off Africa have a moister atmosphere to work with. In this case, the large tropical disturbance near Africa has a smaller, weaker cousin ahead of it, which will help moisten a corridor for the larger disturbance as it navigates to the west.
No other threats are evident, even in the long-range computer forecast models.