El Niño continues to fuel tropical activity in the Pacific with 3 systems on track for development
Models are in agreement that Invest 99E will become a powerful hurricane toward the middle of next week.
The Pacific is popping with tropical systems as Invest 99E could become a powerful hurricane.
We continue to monitor three different tropical systems in the Pacific all with medium to high chances of developing over the next week. Invest 99E could even became a major hurricane by mid-to-late next week.
THE TAKEAWAY
- The Pacific is teeming with activity with three systems to watch, including one that could become a hurricane.
- Development could happen as early as Sunday or Monday.
- Could have significant impacts on the Mexican coastline and Baja, California.
The East Pacific remains alive with tropical activity as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitors two systems with high chances of becoming tropical depressions, including one that could strengthen into a hurricane.
The first system, dubbed Invest 99E, is located about 800 miles southwest of Mexico, as of the latest update from the NHC.
Designated on Friday, this area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and has a high likelihood of becoming a tropical depression or storm.
WHAT ARE KELVIN WAVES? EL NIÑO’S HIDDEN THREAT THAT COULD IMPACT SEVERAL STATES ON THE WEST COAST
(FOX Weather)
The FOX Forecast Center said development is likely to happen on Sunday or Monday.
Once it forms, it will eventually be pushed north by a dip in upper-level winds from the West, which will bring it toward the Mexican coast sometime in the middle of next week.
Models are in agreement that Invest 99E will become a powerful hurricane at that time.
TOPSHOT - Wind blows palm trees before the arrival of hurricane Norma at Los Cabos, Baja California State, Mexico, on October 21, 2023.
(JOEL COSIO/AFP / Getty Images)
Whether it makes landfall or stays just offshore remains unknown at this time, but the storm should get close enough to the coast to bring heavy rain and at least gusty winds to the west coast of Mexico or Baja, California, the FOX Forecast Center said.
(FOX Weather)
The aforementioned dip in the upper-level winds will also pull 99E's moisture into the Southwest, with tropical-infused downpours starting in New Mexico and/or Arizona and Colorado as early as Tuesday.
If this does play out, this will be the third system this season to impact Mexico, bringing a change from the recent storms impacting Hawaii.
TALE OF TWO COASTS: EROSION THREATENS HOMES FROM CALIFORNIA TO NORTH CAROLINA
Meanwhile, Invest 98E is becoming more organized since being designated on Thursday.
(FOX Weather)
The NHC said the system has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression this weekend as it moves west through the East Pacific.
While neither of these systems has its sights set on Hawaii, the islands could still see some enhanced tropical moisture into next week from the remnants of Tropical Depression 15-E.
These remnants are currently being monitored by the NHC as an Area To Watch for redevelopment, with medium odds.
(FOX Weather)
Development of a tropical depression is possible south of Hawaii by the middle of next week. If it were to become a tropical depression, it would get a new number associated with it as it moves into the Central Pacific.
The next system to develop into a tropical storm in the East Pacific will get the name Odalys.
(FOX Weather)
On average, the East Pacific produces about 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major (Category 3+) hurricanes.
During El Niño years since 1990, those averages rise to approximately 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, highlighting a measurable increase in activity.