Updated at 10 a.m. Eastern
Disturbance #1 started as a weak frontal system. It got stranded over the warmish waters of the central Atlantic below an area of high pressure. The clockwise flow around the high has pushed it back toward the west, so now it’s approaching Bermuda.
The system appears to have a short window of time to evolve into a depression or a named system. Whether it would be classified as a tropical system or a hybrid, technically subtropical, is an open question. The analysis that diagnoses these things is right on the line.
In any case, it is forecast to track near Bermuda late today. If winds are determined to be 40 mph or higher in the circulation, it would be named Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Lisa. Even if it does develop a bit, it’s unlikely to get very strong.
The National Hurricane Center is only giving this a slight chance of happening before the disturbance gets swept to the north over cold water in advance of the next front moving across New England.
Potential Disturbance #2 might develop from a large area of disturbed weather related to the old cold front that brought fall weather to much of the East. The computer forecast models predict that a low-pressure system could consolidate out of this area in a few days and then meander over warm ocean waters offshore of the southeastern U.S.
There is no indication that the system would threaten land at the current time. The National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a low chance of developing into at least a tropical depression.
Otherwise, we continue to keep an eye on the Caribbean. If anything significant is going to develop, it will almost certainly be there.