Bryan Norcross: Nor'easter targets Northeast while Hurricane Nolo impacts Hawaii and Polo threatens Mexico

Updated at 10:45 a.m. on Friday, Sept. 25, 2026. 

Strengthening nor'easter

The low-pressure system that formed off the Southeast coast is being lifted north and energized by a dip in the jet stream. It will become marooned off the coast of New Jersey meandering and looping through the weekend.

The computer forecast models show the storm peaking in intensity on Saturday. Unlike a well-developed tropical storm or hurricane, the winds are not concentrated around the center with this type of cyclone. Coastal damage can and is expected to occur over a long stretch of the coastline from the Carolinas to New England.

STRENGTHENING NOR’EASTER BRINGS DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS AS IT CHARGES ALONG EAST COAST

Flooding is also likely in bays, harbors, and inlets where the water can pile up.

Because the storm is forecast to stall or make a small loop, the winds will be pushing ocean water in about the same direction for multiple high tide cycles. In some cases, this will mean the tide will not be able to go out, and the next high tide will add to the water level.

Some bands of heavy rain could produce flooding, but it's more likely that the rain will occur over two or three days, so the flood threat is moderate. The southeastern corner of New England below a line from around the Massachusetts/New Hampshire line to just east of New York City, seems to be the potential flood zone.

Everybody near the coast or close to inland bay or waterways should be sure to stay informed about the specific threats to their area.

TIMELINE: WHERE AND WHEN YOU WILL SEE IMPACTS FROM THE STRENGTHENING NOR'EASTER THIS WEEKEND

There is a lot of discussion online about whether this system could be some kind of tropical storm. Low-pressure systems exist on a continuum from totally non-tropical to totally tropical.

If this system were to sit and spin over the extra-warm ocean off the Mid-Atlantic, it would have a good chance of evolving into a tropical storm. But in this case, the ocean temperature under the stalled nor'easter will be in the 60s to near 70 – temperatures that are normally too cool for significant tropical development. 

And importantly, since a subtropical system and a non-tropical system of this type produce the same kind of weather conditions, there's no reason to put confusing new labels on the storm. What's important is that people understand the threat, whatever it is in their area.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Fay continues. It's heading into a hostile zone, however, and is expected to dissipate in a couple of days.

Near Africa, Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed. The Cabo Verde Islands will feel the impacts today as the storm heads north. It will only live two or three days.

Hurricane Nolo and Hawaii

Nolo is moving north in the direction of the Big Island of Hawaii. Late tomorrow or Saturday, it will slow down and make a hard left turn. There is now high confidence that that will happen before the center reaches land.

Even though the core of the hurricane will not directly impact land, heavy rain on the north side of the system will be enhanced by the giant mountains on Hawaii Island, so feet of rain is forecast. Some areas high on the mountain could get nearly 3 feet.

HURRICANE NOLO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, BRING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING, SEVERAL FEET OF RAIN TO HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

The east end of Maui could also get heavy rain. The forecast calls for 5 to 10 inches with up to 20 inches in some locations.

Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible on both of these islands.

Elsewhere across Hawaii, the rain should be mostly manageable, although some areas could see 6 inches as the storm loops by south of the island chain. Local flooding is possible.

Pay attention to alerts from the National Weather Service in Honolulu to stay safe.

Hurricane Polo near Mexico

Polo has again exploded into a 180-mph Category 5 hurricane. It has temporarily moved away from the Mexican coast but is forecast to loop back into Baja California. The storm will weaken before landfall but will still be a formidable storm.

Once Polo is inland, its moisture will be pulled north into a wide area of the Southwest U.S. and the Plains. It will likely aggravate the flooding from the ongoing monsoon.

Everybody in the affected areas needs to plan to stay well informed next week.

Elsewhere in the Pacific

A system is forecast to develop offshore of southern Mexico, and follow Polo to the north. There will likely be some cooler ocean water stirred up by Polo, so this system might not be quite as strong. But early indications are that it could track near or over the Mexican coast. Plan to stay informed.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

Another potential system between Hawaii and Mexico has a medium chance of developing. Neither it nor Hurricane Odalys nearby is expected to directly impact land.

All of these hurricanes in the Pacific put energy in the ocean, so extra-strong currents are likely along the beaches. Use extra caution.