Bryan Norcross: Another Hawaii hurricane threat developing and a new disturbance moves off the African Coast
Tropical Depression 15-E is forecast to develop into a tropical storm, a new disturbance has popped up in the Atlantic and the Pacific is very busy.
Exclusive analysis: Hawaii on alert once again as Tropical Depression 15-E reforms in the Pacific
The exact track of newly reformed Tropical Depression 15-E currently has it heading directly toward the Big Island of Hawaii, before making a sharp turn to the west. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross joins to provide exclusive analysis on the system and if it could become Tropical Storm Nolo.
Updated at 10:30 a.m. on Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026
In the Atlantic
A robust disturbance that just crossed the African coast into the Atlantic could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. But it's expected to make a quick turn to the north.
The National Hurricane Center has the odds of the system becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next several days in the medium range. Computer forecast models that show development show a tropical storm threat for the Cabo Verde Islands. The name would be Gonzalo.
Atlantic status as of Sept. 23, 2026 at 10:30 a.m. (Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather)
In any case, after a few days, the system is likely to dissipate over the ocean.
To the north, Ex-Tropical Storm Fay might regenerate into at least a depression. The NHC has the odds in the low category. In any case, it would not be a threat to land.
The developing nor'easter
The pieces are coming together for an unusual early-season nor'easter to form off the coast of the Northeast. Tropical moisture will stream into the system meaning heavy rain will be likely in some areas. The duration of strong winds along the coast across the Mid-Atlantic and New England will be unusual – beginning today and continuing in the Northeast into early next week.
TIMELINE: HERE'S WHERE AND WHEN MAJOR US CITIES WILL SEE IMPACTS FROM THE DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER
The technical name for this kind of non-tropical system is a warm seclusion extratropical cyclone. They happen. The unusual aspect of this one is that it's happening very early in the fall.
There is a potential for significant impacts, especially right along the coast. Plan to stay well-informed of the latest alerts for your area as the storm develops.
In the Pacific
There is a crazy amount going on. I'll start with the potential for impacts in Hawaii because there has been a shift in the forecast track of former Tropical Depression 15E.
The new consensus is that 15E will regenerate and strengthen into a tropical storm today or tomorrow as it tracks westerly on a path that would take it well south of the islands. But a dip in the jet stream passing north of Hawaii is now forecast to be strong enough to yank the system closer to the islands beginning tomorrow.
A look at the Pacific on Sept. 23, 2026. (Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather)
Most of the computer forecast models show the system strengthening into Tropical Storm or Hurricane Nolo – the next name on the Central Pacific list. There is very little consensus on the track that Nolo will take, however, and how close the core of the system will come to Hawaii before it makes another turn.
Once that jet stream dip passes, odds are the system will continue moving west, and the track ends up looking like a backward S.
Tropical Depression 15-E forecast cone. (Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather)
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Nolo to strengthen to near Category 3 strength based on a very conducive atmospheric environment south of Hawaii and extra-warm ocean water. At this point, the biggest threat is to the Big Island, but there is the potential for the entire state to feel the effects of likely-Hurricane Nolo.
For now, just stay informed. Once the system develops, and the steering currents are better established, the forecast will gain certainty.
Close to Mexico
Hurricane Polo spectacularly intensified yesterday into a 180-mph Category 5 stunner. Its central pressure was one of the lowest ever measured. Thankfully, it's a small storm and its center is forecast to stay offshore of the west coast of Mexico. Dangerous rainfall in the steep parts of the coastal mountain range will be the biggest hazard on land.
Polo has undergone an internal process called an eye replacement cycle that weakens the storm but makes it somewhat larger. But it's still an extremely powerful hurricane.
Hurricane Polo's forecast cone. (Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather)
The track certainty is high for the next three or four days, but after that, potential interaction with Odalys to the west raises questions about potential impacts on Baja California.
South of Polo, the National Hurricane Center is painting a potential development area. Another system has a high chance of organizing there. Early forecasts show it tracking behind Polo, but perhaps closer to the coast. Plan to stay alert and stay aware on the Mexican coast from Cabo San Lucas to Manzanillo and points south. Long-range models show more storms to come.