Bryan Norcross: The Atlantic looks quiet while hurricanes still threaten Mexico
Is hurricane season over? There's a reasonable chance it is for us, but that's not 100%.
Moisture from Rachel's remnants enhances storms blasting Upstate New York, New England
Moisture from the remnants of Rachel, which battered Southern California over the weekend, is being carried over 3,000 miles high in the atmosphere, along a large dip in the jet stream, and is enhancing storms that are blasting parts of Upstate New York and New England Tuesday. Parts of Western and Central New York could see severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few isolated tornadoes. Those areas, as well as parts of northern New England including Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, could see up to 2 inches of rain through Wednesday morning.
Between cold fronts pushing south over the Gulf and Florida, and the El Niño-driven band of upper-level winds over the Atlantic, no tropical development is expected in the foreseeable future that could affect the U.S. or nearby areas.
Is hurricane season over? There's a reasonable chance it is for us, but that's not 100%.
Atlantic basin
(Bryan Norcross)
LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
The large disturbance over the far eastern Atlantic is still there, but strong upper-level winds are stretching it out and prohibiting development.
As it heads north, there is a possibility that the system could find a pocket of atmosphere next week that is conducive for development. Residents of the Azores Islands in the northeast Atlantic will have to keep an eye on it.
In the Pacific near Mexico
Hurricane Simon continues to ignore its forecasts. It's caught in an area with very light steering currents offshore of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, so it's not proceeding apace to make landfall. Simon is an extremely small hurricane, so the main effect on mainland Mexico at the moment is the dangerous energy the storm is putting into the ocean.
Hurricane Simon stats
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Simon is expected to meander over or near the southern Gulf of California for a few days. Everyone from Cabo San Lucas to Mazatlan to Puerto Vallarta should stay informed. When steering currents are light, small and hard-to-detect factors in the atmosphere can push storms in one direction or the other. So forecasts have notoriously high uncertainty.
Pacific basin
(Bryan Norcross)
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A tropical disturbance offshore of southern Mexico looks likely to develop into Hurricane Trudy. Computer forecasts show likely-Trudy tracking near or over the southwest coast of Mexico. Everyone there should be sure to monitor the latest information on the storm.