Bryan Norcross: Slight chance of tropical development off the Southeast, but no threat expected
The circulation, if it develops, is expected to be broad, and there's unlikely to be enough time for it to spin up into anything significant before it dissipates or perhaps moves over land late in the week.
Exclusive analysis: Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross weighs in on new area to watch in Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center has designated a new area to watch for tropical activity off the coast of the Southeastern U.S. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross gives his expert analysis on what this new area to watch could look like as we head into the holiday week.
The frontal system that has been causing all the rain in the Midwest and the mid-Atlantic is forecast to sink south and offshore of the East Coast. By Monday evening, a weak area of low pressure is expected to develop along the front. This is a typical development that occurs off the Southeast coast, at least partially energized by the warm water of the Gulf Stream.
SEVERE STORM THREAT SHIFTS EAST AFTER DEADLY, CATASTROPHIC FLOODING SLAMS KENTUCKY AND INDIANA
Around Wednesday, that low-pressure system could break free of the front and acquire some tropical characteristics over the warm ocean water. The circulation, if it develops, is expected to be broad, and there's unlikely to be enough time for it to spin up into anything significant before it dissipates or perhaps moves over land late in the week.
A look at the frontal system.
(Bryan Norcross / NOAA)
The odds of anything tropical developing look to be lower today based on multiple computer forecast models. But a few, continue to show a slight chance of development. The National Hurricane Center is still carrying 20% odds that the system becomes at least a tropical depression.
The air mass associated with the heat-dome high-pressure system over the eastern U.S. will be very dry, which should be an inhibiting factor to any significant tropical development.
New area to watch designated in the Atlantic.
(Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather)
Even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression forms, it now looks unlikely that it would affect land in any disruptive way.
We'll keep an eye on it, but there's no reason to stare very hard.