Updated at 8:20 a.m. EDT
Tropical Disturbance #1 is a disorganized cluster of gusty squalls around an elongated low-pressure system in the extreme southeast Caribbean Sea. The approximate center of the system is very close to the Venezuelan coast. With much of the disturbance over land and the likelihood of more land interaction ahead, quick development of the system is unlikely.
Late tomorrow or early Saturday, however, the disturbance is forecast to reach the receptive waters of the southwestern Caribbean. Before the system reaches Central America, it will likely have the time and the conducive atmospheric environment to organize and strengthen, at least a bit.
In the meantime, nasty weather with squalls gusting to or near tropical storm strength will pass over the ABC Islands – Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao – and the land masses nearby. Flooding rain fell in Trinidad and Tobago from the system yesterday, and that threat continues.
There is no way to know what shape the disturbance will be in when it escapes interaction with the South American land mass. So the system's strength when it reaches Central America about Sunday is an open question. Long-range computer models range from a modest tropical storm to a well-developed hurricane.
It appears most likely that the storm will most directly impact Nicaragua and Honduras, and people there should stay aware. But an impact on Belize can't be ruled out. In addition, tropical moisture will spread across Central America to the Pacific as the system continues west.
A strong blocking area of high pressure will keep the disturbance from turning north and affecting the U.S. or the northern Caribbean.
Tropical Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic is on its last legs. It is forecast to dissipate shortly.
Otherwise, the tropics appear calm. With fronts moving south bringing cool air to the north and lowering humidity across the southern states, we'll watch the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Sometimes the tail of a front can be a catalyst that triggers a storm to form, though there's no sign of anything at the moment.