Will 2026 be the hottest year ever amid record-breaking temperatures across the US?
Let's see what the prediction markets, sponsored by Kalshi, are saying about whether or not 2026 will be the hottest year ever.
July 4 heat wave shatters more than 148 records across the eastern US
The historic heat dome that broiled the eastern U.S. over the July 4 holiday weekend shattered records across the eastern U.S. At least 148 daily high-temperature records were set between June 30 and Sunday, July 5. Notably, Washington, D.C., broke the record for the warmest July 4 with a high temperature of 103 degrees. Philadelphia recorded three consecutive days above 101 degrees for the first time in its history. Atlantic City, New Jersey tied its all-time hottest temperature of 106 degrees on Saturday.
Millions of Americans have experienced relentless summer temperatures so far this season, with more on the way as the heat is just getting started.
The heat pattern across the U.S. will shift as people on the East Coast get a bit of relief, while portions of the West will be under a heat dome.
The most severe triple-digit heat threat will be directly over the Desert Southwest for popular locations such as Phoenix and Las Vegas. Still, the heat dome will expand further along its eastern and northern ridges.
NEW YORK CITY - JUNE 29: People cool off at Coney Island beach on June 29, 2026 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. A heat wave is forecast for much of the East Coast this week, with temperatures in the city expected to reach near 100 degrees, prompting Mayor Zohran Mamdani to activate a heat emergency plan that includes hundreds of cooling centers and intensified outreach and support for the vulnerable. (Spencer Platt / Getty Images)
As a result, temperatures will easily climb into the upper 90s and low 100s across cities such as Salt Lake City and Denver, with the potential to break daily heat records.
As we look ahead to yet another fiery jump in temperatures, with plenty of time left in the summer, it is worth asking whether 2026 will be the hottest year ever.
This comes as the Northeast experienced multiple days of over 100-degree weather.
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At least 148 daily high-temperature records were set between June 30 and Sunday, July 5.
As scorching temperatures become a normal occurrence at certain points, as seen with the heat now shifting West and plenty of time left in the summer, it is worth breaking down.
Prediction markets at Kalshi are predicting a 23.8% chance that 2026 could be the hottest year in history.
JULY OUTLOOK: PATTERN FLIP TO SIMMER AND SOAK MILLIONS AS EXTREME HEAT SHIFTS WEST
It is worth monitoring as we enter another heat wave in the west and as we have plenty of time left in the year, as warming temperatures become more frequent in some locations.