NOAA lowers 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast due to oncoming 'Super El Niño'

NOAA lowers 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast due to oncoming 'Super El Niño'

NOAA maintained its forecast for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, the agency announced in its final 2026 hurricane season outlook Thursday. Government forecasters said they expect a very strong El Niño climate pattern to last through this fall, creating atmospheric conditions that will suppress tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean. The agency expects 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, including 0 to 2 major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes this year. Those ranges include Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, which formed in the Gulf earlier this summer. This is a slight reduction from NOAA's initial forecast that was issued in late May.