Live updates: Major nor'easter to 'bomb out,' Carolinas in threat zone for heavy snow, intense wind

Yes, you read that headline correctly. Florida could see flurries this weekend due to a rare setup that will trigger "Gulf-effect snow." Areas from the Big Bend of Florida down to the Fort Myers/Naples region could see snowflakes.

Unusually cold air is forecast to sweep across the South and into Florida this weekend - some of the coldest the Sunshine State has felt in over 15 years. On Saturday night, lingering moisture from the nor'easter barreling up the East Coast could mix with the dangerously cold air and produce flurries or a rain/snow mix along Florida’s Gulf Coast.

This is similar to lake-effect snow, which you often hear about happening in the Great Lakes. Lake-effect snow forms when very cold Arctic air moves over warmer water. The air just above the water warms slightly, rises quickly through the colder air above, forming clouds and producing snow downwind.

In Florida, “Gulf-effect snow” can happen when frigid air rolls over the relatively warmer Gulf waters. For this to happen, there needs to be a long fetch of northwest winds picking up moisture, combined with a big enough difference between the water temperature and the cold air above. The larger the temperature difference, the faster the air rises boosting the chance of snow formation.

The FOX Forecast Centers says the chance for a rain/snow mix Saturday night is low, with only flurries possible along coastal areas. To put this in perspective, measurable snow in Florida is incredibly rare. Tampa has only recorded measurable snow twice: 0.2" on January 19, 1977, and 0.1" on February 13, 1899. Naples, FL, which could also see flurries, has never recorded measurable snow. While flurries have been observed in Central Florida before, accumulating snow is exceptionally difficult due to warm ground temperatures.

FOX Weather meteorologists say this weekend's nor'easter will undergo rapid intensification, a process known as "bombogenesis." It's often referred to in flashy headlines as a "bomb cyclone" or you may hear experts say it's going to "bomb out."

But what exactly does that mean? FOX Weather explains the terminology and how it happens.

Time is running out to prepare for this weekend's nor'easter. The exclusive FOX Weather Model shows snow starting to develop across North Carolina and Virginia as early as Friday afternoon, becoming widespread by dawn on Saturday.

While the snow will make headlines this weekend, some of the most serious impacts will come from the wind. There is growing concern that the combination of 60–70 mph onshore wind gusts, high surf, and significant beach erosion could lead to scenes reminiscent of impacts seen during the recent hurricane season, including the potential loss of additional homes.

Unlike the storms from the 2025 hurricane season, this system is expected to track very close to the coastline, allowing for near hurricane-force gusts in some coastal locations. Snow is also likely to reach areas such as Wilmington, North Carolina, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, Charleston, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. If the timing of the heaviest snow overlaps with the strongest winds, ground blizzard conditions could even develop, especially along the North Carolina coast.

FOX Weather's snow forecast has 75 million Americans in the path of this weekend's nor'easter. Snow is expected to start flying over the Appalachians on Friday and spread across the Carolinas by Saturday morning. Unlike last weekend's historic winter storm, this one will be a coastal storm, directing its fury toward coastal areas from Georgia to Maine. At this time, the heaviest snow is expected to fall on eastern North Carolina and Virginia. As the storm moves north, it's also predicted to drop heavy snow on Cape Cod in Massachusetts.

Millions of Americans are still digging out from last weekend's historic winter storm, so the prospect of another has many on alert. Fortunately for big cities like New York, Philadelphia, Washington, and Boston, this weekend's nor'easter will largely miss them.

Any meteorologist will tell you that the East Coast's biggest snowstorms come in the form of an old-fashioned nor'easter. Low pressure develops off the East Coast and charges north, spreading heavy snow to areas along the coast. This is how the heavily-populated Interstate 95 corridor gets its big snows.

So why won't this weekend's storm deliver blockbuster totals? Forecasters use something called the "benchmark" to help them determine whether or not the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will get walloped by heavy snow. The benchmark is the so-called "40/70 benchmark," located at 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude. For reference, that's some 80 miles south of Massachusetts' Nantucket Island.

If cold air is sufficient over the Northeast, a low-pressure system tracking over this sweet spot has the potential to be a blockbuster snowstorm for parts of the region. Many of the major winter storms that impact Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington pass very close to the 40/70 benchmark during their journey northward off the East Coast. The famed "Blizzard of '96" was one such example that brought heavy snow to all those major cities.

A difference of 50 miles to the left or right of that point can have a huge implication on the forecast, and that's why uncertainty can be high even a day or two before the winter storm's arrival. The FOX Forecast Center says computer forecast models have consistently indicated this upcoming weekend's center of pressure will stay east of the benchmark, which means little to snow along I-95. That's certainly welcome news to the thousands of workers still clearing streets of snow and ice across the region.

Light snow (possibly an inch) is still expected from near Boston to New York to Washington, but the storm's worst impacts will be seen and felt across the Carolinas where the low will initially form closer to the coast.

Thousands are still without power across the South following last weekend's historic winter storm. Crippling ice coated portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee, downing trees and power lines and paralyzing the region. Restoration efforts have been hampered by the ongoing extreme cold and icy conditions throughout the region.

Hundreds of lineman and crews from across the South have answered the call to help get the lights back on in the most hard-hit areas. Data from PowerOutage.com shows remarkable improvement in the past 24 hours, but nearly 300,000 customers still don't have electricity this morning. Crews are working around the clock to help repair damaged power poles and transmission lines in multiple states.

The FOX Forecast Center says a dangerous nor'easter will slam the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic with heavy snow starting as early as Friday. Significant snow is predicted to fall along the Piedmont to the coast, and could disrupt travel across the region. Charlotte, North Carolina and Raleigh, North Carolina are expected to see 5-8 inches of snow from this potent storm, while the Outer Banks of North Carolina could get nearly a foot of snow.

Norfolk, Virginia and the Virginia Beach area could also be looking at more than a half foot of snow this weekend. Farther south, light snow is expected across North Georgia and as far south as Charleston, South Carolina.

You can go back and see live updates from Wednesday's coverage.

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