The clock is ticking on SpaceX’s race to Mars
Let’s take a look at how prediction markets are pricing the odds that SpaceX successfully lands something on Mars before 2030.
Watch: NASA's SpaceX Crew-12 blasts off to International Space Station from Florida
Crew-12 successfully launched from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station early this morning. The 4-person team is set to dock at the International Space Station on Saturday, Feb. 14, and remain at the iSS for eight months.
THE TAKEAWAY
- SpaceX’s ultimate ambition is to establish life on Mars.
- Starship is the centerpiece of SpaceX’s plan to reach and land on Mars.
- Prediction markets are pricing when SpaceX will get there.
With NASA pushing toward a return to the moon, SpaceX is racing to prove that Starship can help take astronauts there, and eventually go much farther.
The massive spacecraft is central to SpaceX’s role in the Artemis program, but the company’s ambitions extend well beyond the lunar surface.
NASA CAPTURES STUNNING NEW VIEW OF TARANTULA NEBULA REVEALING DETAILS ABOUT HOW STARS ARE FORMING
The SpaceX Starship and Super Heavy booster stacked for launch in Boca Chica, Texas on March 12, 2024 ahead of SpaceX's third test flight with the mega rocket. (Image: SpaceX)
As Starship testing accelerates, SpaceX continues to pursue its ultimate destination: Mars.
After two successful missions kicked off the program’s return to deep space, a pivotal chapter in NASA’s Artemis program is fast approaching.
NASA'S ARTEMIS PROGRAM: PAVING THE WAY FOR HUMANKIND'S RETURN TO THE MOON AND BEYOND
Artemis III, targeted for 2027, will test critical lunar landing technologies in space, while Artemis IV, planned for early 2028, aims to return astronauts to the moon’s surface.
Close-up color photograph of Mars. Impact craters are visible on the surface of the planet.
(CORBIS/Corbis via Getty Images / Getty Images)
SpaceX hasn’t exactly been quiet about its ambitions to play a major role in Artemis — or about its larger goal of reaching Mars.
According to SpaceX, cargo flights to Mars for research, development and exploratory missions start no earlier than 2028, with Starship, "designed to fly to other worlds and will enable self-growing bases on the Moon, an entire civilization on Mars and ultimately expansion to the Universe."
WATCH: MASSIVE METEOR LIGHTS UP PACIFIC NORTHWEST SKY IN ELECTRIC BLUE
With ambitious goals and no shortage of confidence, let’s take a look at how prediction markets are pricing the odds that SpaceX successfully lands something on Mars before 2030.
SpaceX’s long-term goal is to send humans to Mars, but a crewed mission isn’t the only milestone worth watching before 2030.
A successful landing could come first from an uncrewed Starship carrying cargo, scientific equipment or other payloads to the Martian surface.
For SpaceX, every Starship test flight is another step toward Mars. The spacecraft is making progress, but major technical hurdles still remain before it can make the journey to the Red Planet.