Scientists can no longer predict when Kilauea will erupt due to recent volcanic activity
Because the lava has to work harder to fountain up and out, it's finding a new way to go that exploits weaknesses beneath the surface from that 2018 summit collapse.
FILE: 54th eruption of Mount Kilauea Volcano
The 54th eruption of Mount Kilauea Volcano is underway as it continues its active summer.
HAWAI'I VOLCANOES NATIONAL PARK, Hawaii – Recent activity beneath Kilauea's surface has made eruption prediction forecasting no longer possible.
Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) said while lava flows that erupted from the north and south vents in Halemaʻumaʻu at the summit of Kīlauea on the night of Sept. 30, magma was also making a new path below the surface of the caldera.
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This caused the recent swarm of more than 100 earthquakes that rocked Kilauea from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, which then caused a sheet-like vertical body of magma, called a dike, to open up in the northwestern part of Kaluapele, Kilauea's summit caldera.
Lava fountains from Kilauea volcano during 53rd eruptive episode. (Hawaii Volcanoes National Park / FOX Weather)
A dike forms when magma intrudes into sub-vertical cracks as it moves beneath the surface.
In this case, the earthquakes were accompanied by the ground near the crater tilting upward very quickly.
"The localized nature of the tilt changes indicated they were caused by the intrusion of magma near the western rim of Kaluapele and much closer to the surface than the Halemaʻumaʻu magma chamber," the USGS said.
The largest new crack observed on the northern part of Kīlauea caldera floor during a field visit on October 6, 2026, was measured at 15 cm (6 inches) wide. The sharp edge of the tephra deposit above the crack, as well as delicate suspended roots that were pulled apart in the crack, help indicate that this is a new crack and not an older, existing one (USGS photo by M. Patrick. / FOX Weather)
The combination of seismicity and tiltmeter data was able to provide scientists with the timing of events and the general location, but not the shape and size of the dike.
To find out how big it was, USGS scientists used InSAR satellite images, which showed them that the dike extends from the established vent area in Halemaʻumaʻu crater and cuts across the northwestern part of Kaluapele.
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The dike is narrow and elaborate and follows the cracks that formed in the caldera during the 2018 summit collapse and created new, tiny cracks that scientists identified on satellite imagery.
Some of the new cracks that formed on Kīlauea caldera floor between September 30-October 1 were steaming and warm (about 60 dg Celsius, or 140 dg Fahrenheit) when they were measured by this thermal camera on October 6. This area has been covered in warm, steaming cracks for decades, however, and there was no sign of magmatic gas associated with the recent intrusive activity. (USGS photo by M. Patrick / FOX Weather)
Basically, the vents that have been lava fountaining since 2024 have slowly been rising. Because of this, the pressure needed to push magma out of the vents and trigger a major fountain episode has increased significantly, making it harder for lava to come out.
The USGS said they've noted this with recent activity since episode 54 on Aug. 25 when these inconsistent patterns of inflation continued.
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"The opening of six vents on and below the northwest wall of Halemaʻumaʻu on September 14 to 16 suggests that magma is able to intrude into pre-existing weak, fractured areas along the northern and western boundaries of Halemaʻumaʻu without having to create new space," the USGS said.
Kilauea's 52 eruptive episode on Jul 28, 2026. (USGS / FOX Weather)
Therefore, because the lava has to work harder to fountain up and out, it's finding a new way to go that exploits weaknesses beneath the surface from that 2018 summit collapse.
The impact of the Kilauea summit's increased pressurization and earthquakes on the next episode of lava fountaining, if any, isn't known right now, scientists said.
This means that scientists can no longer forecast when Kilauea will erupt next based on patterns.
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It doesn't mean any eruptions that occur in the future will be a surprise. Data from tiltmeters and earthquakes, among other things, will help them figure out when an eruption may occur, often giving days or at least hours' notice prior to the event.
Another view of the new ground cracks in the north part of Kaluapele, Kīlauea summit caldera, cutting through the recent tephra deposits on the caldera floor. New cracks were up to about 6 inches (15 cm) wide. The active vents of the ongoing eruption are visible in the upper right portion of the photo. (USGS photo by M. Patrick.)
A few scenarios could happen next:
- Kilauea could begin fountaining as in previous episodes. The conditions are still there, but this is unlikely because of the path the magma has taken thus far.
- Magma could continue to exploit weak regions underground, pushing into cracks and not coming to the surface.
- A new vent could open, allowing magma to establish a new, shallow pathway to the surface.
- Magma could intrude into the Southwest Rift Zone or East Rift Zone, which would lead scientists to expect a series of earthquakes in this area.
- The eruption could also stop entirely because of magma changes or stress inside the volcano. If this happened, it would be the end of the eruption that's lasted since Dec. 2024.
FOX Weather will continue to bring you the latest updates from Kilauea as USGS scientists monitor the situation.