Tropical development odds rise as brewing 'Super' El Niño drives Atlantic hurricane season to near record-low
Experts at NOAA and FOX Weather still caution people to not let their guard down. Climatologically, about 40% of the season’s hurricane activity still remains.
Exclusive analysis: Hawaii on alert once again as Tropical Depression 15-E reforms in the Pacific
The exact track of newly reformed Tropical Depression 15-E currently has it heading directly toward the Big Island of Hawaii, before making a sharp turn to the west. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross joins to provide exclusive analysis on the system and if it could become Tropical Storm Nolo.
THE TAKEAWAY
- NHC is monitoring Invest 90L just off the coast of West Africa.
- The Atlantic is off to its quietest start on record in the satellite era (1966).
- El Niño is the main driving factor behind the dearth of Atlantic tropical activity, with a 97% chance of Super El Niño forming later this year.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area to watch for tropical development just off the coast of West Africa amid the slowest start to an Atlantic hurricane season in the satellite era (since 1966) as hostile El Niño-driven winds have dominated much of the basin.
(FOX Weather)
NHC has designated this tropical wave — an area of disturbed weather with a burst of thunderstorms — as Invest 90L after it moved off the coast of Africa.
The hurricane center is giving 90L medium odds of developing over the next seven days.
WHAT IS AN INVEST DURING HURRICANE SEASON?
"The El Niño-driven prohibitive upper winds don't quite reach that corner of the Atlantic, although the atmospheric environment is still marginal," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said Tuesday.
2026 Atlantic Basin storm names.
(FOX Weather)
If 90L does strengthen into a tropical storm, it would be named Gonzalo.
LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
The NHC expects 90L to move northward and potentially bring gusty winds and rain to the Cabo Verde islands.
Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay, some 800 miles southwest of the Azores, are being given low odds of redeveloping.
Latest date of first hurricane formation.
(FOX Weather)
Fay approached, but failed to reach hurricane strength amid the Atlantic's quietest start to hurricane season in the satellite era, with just five named storms and no hurricanes.
The only years without recorded hurricanes are 1914 and 1907. However, as FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross notes, hurricanes could have formed in those years that went undetected because they remained far from land and ships at sea.
Satellite imagery of the Atlantic on Sep. 23, 2026.
(CIRA)
According to NOAA, El Niño is the main driving factor behind the dearth of Atlantic tropical activity. The strong winds produced by the climate pattern hinder tropical development; calm conditions are generally more conducive to hurricane formation.
However, experts at NOAA and FOX Weather still caution people to not let their guard down. Climatologically, about 40% of the season’s hurricane activity still remains.