Hawaii turns watchful eye to Hurricane Kiko as storm tracks toward islands

Hawaii eyes Hurricane Kiko which remains a major Category 3 storm

While Hurricane Kiko remains small, it’s a quiet powerful storm. Kiko remains over warmer waters for a short time and further strengthening may occur. Some forecast models have Kiko reaching Category 5 before a very quick weakening trend. Current forecast has Kiko traversing over cooler water temperatures and it would be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the vicinity of the Big Island early next week. Because Kiko has a small footprint, even a slight shift in its track could greatly affect how it impacts the islands.

HONOLULU - Hurricane Kiko has started a weakening trend after rapidly intensifying into a Category 4 cyclone over the open Pacific. Now, attention turns to how the storm will play out for Hawaii.

As of Friday, Kiko was still over 1,300 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and expected to commence a significant weakening process over the weekend.

While the islands are in the five-day forecast cone, meteorologists said that Kiko will be a completely different storm by the time it approaches Hawaii early next week.

Several factors, including cool sea surface temperatures, hostile upper-level winds and dry air, will in essence act as a barrier between the hurricane and the islands. This will likely mean limited impacts for Hawaii.

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Satellites estimate that sea surface temperatures between the hurricane and the Big Island of Hawaii are in the mid-70s, which is considered cooler than what a cyclone typically needs for strengthening.

Hurricane experts widely consider water temperatures of at least 79 degrees to be warm enough for storm systems to organize and strengthen.

Based on the forecast cone, rough seas and occasional showers look to be nearly a guarantee, with the possibility of increasing impacts if the cyclone were to take a more southern route.

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Forecasters and computer models should get a better handle on the synoptic scenario after Hurricane Hunters sample the storm on Sunday.

Kiko is a rather small cyclone, with hurricane-force winds only extending outward 20–30 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 80 miles, meaning that chances are fairly low that Hawaii will see damaging impacts.

Hawaii's hurricane history

Officials in Hawaii are accustomed to closely monitoring tropical systems, but direct landfalls are rare, primarily because of the sea surface temperatures.

Data from NOAA shows only four major hurricanes with winds of at least 115 mph passing within 50 miles of the 137 Hawaiian Islands.

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In August 2021, the remnants of Hurricane Linda passed directly over parts of the state after the system weakened into a non-trackable entity.

The remnants produced heavy rainfall on some islands, with elevated waves on north- and east-facing beaches.

And in 2020, Hurricane Douglas came even closer and triggered the issuance of watches and warnings but still did not make a direct landfall.

It remains to be seen how close Kiko will get to the islands, so for now the National Hurricane Center is just reminding residents to keep a close eye on the forecast.