Super El Niño then and now: How this year's strengthening event compares to historic extremes
This year’s developing "Super El Niño" could become one of the strongest on record, here’s how it compares on satellite radar with the powerful 1997–98 and 2015–16 events.
Super El Niño is brewing to bring an impactful winter
Winter is near, and super El Niño is forecast to make it quite a winter to remember. FOX Weather Meteorologists Stephen Morgan, Bayne Froney, Britta Merwin and Craig Herrera break down the forecast and talk about past El Niño events similar to this one.
THE TAKEAWAY
- This year’s developing "Super El Niño" could rival some of the strongest events on record.
- NASA satellite data shows it currently resembles the powerful 1997–98 El Niño.
- Satellite imagery shows how this year’s pattern compares with two historic benchmark events.
This year’s developing "Super El Niño" could become one of the strongest on record. Here’s how it compares with the powerful 1997–98 and 2015–16 events, using NASA satellite imagery captured during the same stage of each event.
El Niño is the Pacific Ocean’s "warm phase."
'HISTORIC' EL NIÑO INCREASINGLY LIKELY, WITH 83% CHANCE OF BECOMING THE STRONGEST ON RECORD
Every few years, unusually warm water builds across the equatorial Pacific, weakening the trade winds and shifting tropical rainfall eastward.
The 2015-16 El Niño was also very strong, as elevated sea levels in October 2015 (middle) show. But its pattern differed from those in October 1997 (top) and October 2026 (bottom): less of the elevated water reached the coast of South America, which contributed to different weather patterns that year. (NASA / NASA)
That ocean-atmosphere change can help nudge the jet stream, bringing wetter conditions to the southern U.S. and warmer, drier weather to parts of the northern U.S. and Canada during winter.
Each El Niño develops differently, varying in strength, duration and impacts.
COULD HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF? HOW PAST SUPER EL NIÑO WINTERS OFFER CLUES ABOUT WHAT'S AHEAD
This year, a powerful El Niño is building across the Pacific, with long-range forecasts suggesting the 2026–27 event could rank among the strongest in recent history.
October 12, 2026. (NASA / NASA)
The satellite image captured on Oct. 12 shows the classic fingerprint of a powerful El Niño.
The broad red band across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific represents higher-than-normal sea levels, a sign that warm water has expanded and surged eastward toward South America.
SUPER EL NIÑO FUELED WINTER COULD UNLEASH MORE STORMS, DRIVING MORE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE SOUTH
Blue shades mark lower-than-normal sea levels, while white indicates near-average conditions.
The 1997–98 and 2015–16 El Niño years are considered two of the strongest on record, and the ongoing event could rank with the heavyweights, if not surpass them as a benchmark El Niño.
1997-98
This powerful El Niño sent a huge pool of warm water surging east across the Pacific, reaching all the way to South America.
October 13, 1997. (NASA / NASA)
Its influence was felt worldwide, fueling fires in Indonesia and the Amazon, drought-driven crop failures in Southern Africa, and heavy rain and coastal flooding in Southern California and the southern U.S.
2015-16
Another major heavyweight, the 2015–16 El Niño featured exceptionally warm, elevated water across the Pacific.
Its impacts looked different, with rainfall focused more heavily over Central America and the southeastern U.S., while Mexico experienced significant flooding. Unlike 1997–98, the warm water did not extend as far as South America.
October 12, 2015. (NASA / NASA)
NASA says the current El Niño more closely resembles the 1997–98 event so far, but scientists caution that its eventual impacts remain uncertain.