Snow in the Big Apple? How Super El Niño could influence NYC's first snowfall

Name: Heavy rain is on the way for the Northeast with cooling temperatures
Uploaded: 2026-11-05T14:17:50-05:00
Duration: 1 min 6 s
Description: WET WEATHER TARGETS THE NORTHEAST: As heavy rain moves into the Northeast, it could cool down temperatures for thousands of residents as we break down the potential high for New York City today. Segment sponsored by Kalshi.

WET WEATHER TARGETS THE NORTHEAST: As heavy rain moves into the Northeast, it could cool down temperatures for thousands of residents as we break down the potential high for New York City today. Segment sponsored by Kalshi.

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Heavy rain is on the way for the Northeast with cooling temperatures

WET WEATHER TARGETS THE NORTHEAST: As heavy rain moves into the Northeast, it could cool down temperatures for thousands of residents as we break down the potential high for New York City today. Segment sponsored by Kalshi.

NEW YORK CITY, N.Y. – As we dig deeper into fall, temperatures steadily drop, creating colder weather and raising questions about whether locations like the Big Apple will see its first snow of the year next month.

A record-breaking El Niño is possible this winter, and it could affect cold weather patterns and snowfall for the upcoming season.

Forecasters are also monitoring how this will affect the polar vortex and what kind of winter impacts it could bring, whether a warmer-than-usual season or typical cold outbreaks.

MAJOR POLAR VORTEX DISRUPTION COULD BE JUST 24 HOURS AWAY — WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Currently, a major disruption of the polar vortex continues to develop high above the Arctic region, as forecast models predict strong winds will soon reverse the direction of this system.

FILE - A resident shovels snow during a storm in Hudson, New York, US, on Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024. Hundreds of flights have been grounded across the US from a pair of winter storms that left more than a foot of snow in New York's Hudson Valley and sparked blizzard warnings across the Great Plains.

A resident shovels snow during a storm in Hudson, New York, US, on Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024. Hundreds of flights have been grounded across the US from a pair of winter storms that left more than a foot of snow in New York's Hudson Valley and sparked blizzard warnings across the Great Plains.

(Angus Mordant/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

If this occurs, it would bring an unusually early snowfall event for the season, possibly the earliest on record.

Although a polar vortex disruption usually leads to colder weather, meteorologists at the FOX Forecast Center do not believe this will be the immediate outcome, as it could take weeks for these changes to take effect.

New York City, New York - Top Domestic Destination for US Travelers according to 2024 Tripadvisor's Winter Travel Index

(Tripadvisor / FOX Weather)

As a result, any potential winter impacts across North America would likely be towards late November and December.

In light of this, prediction markets at Kalshi are breaking down the odds of how much snow New York City could experience in December.

DREAMING OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS? OLD FARMER'S ALMANAC PREDICTS 16 STATES COULD HAVE A WINTRY HOLIDAY

Experts at Kalshi expect a 44% chance of more than 2 inches of snow in December.

COULD SUPER EL NIÑO PUT A DAMPER ON LAKE-EFFECT SNOW THIS WINTER?

This comes as the FOX Forecast Center predicts moderate to above-average temperatures, with brief cold spells possible for the Northeast.