Updated: 7 a.m. EDT
The National Hurricane Center is making note of a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean that could trigger a tropical depression in the far southern Gulf of Mexico at the end of the week. The curved Mexican coastline in the southern Gulf can help systems spin up if other conditions are met.
It appears the system will arrive in the Gulf about Friday and only have a couple of days over the warm Gulf water before it moves inland over Mexico or South Texas. The upper-level winds are forecast to be reasonably conducive for development, but dry air and its short time over the water would seem to be limiting factors. At this point, the NHC is giving the disturbance a slight chance of developing into a tropical depression before it moves inland.
In the tropical Atlantic, nothing is developing yet, but long-range computer models are giving some indication of tropical activity in a week or so. On average, the odds of a tropical storm or hurricane developing increase significantly around Aug. 20. So it would be normal for activity to pick up next week plus or minus.