Updated at 8:30 a.m. Eastern: The Tropical Disturbance we have been following in the eastern tropical Atlantic is showing no signs of organization.
As it heads in the general direction of the waters north of Puerto Rico, it has a slight chance of acquiring sufficient organization to be designated a tropical depression by the National Hurricane Center.
The environment around the disturbance is not very conducive to tropical development. A large area of Saharan dust has spread across the Atlantic just north of the disturbance. As the system tracks just north of due west, it’s likely that some dry, dusty air will be pulled into the disturbance keeping thunderstorms from forming. A core of thunderstorms is necessary for a tropical system to develop.
In addition, the system will be venturing into cooler waters, and by the time the disturbance gets near the islands, the upper-level winds are forecast to be increasingly hostile.
It’s not impossible that the disturbance will find a pocket of sufficiently moist air to briefly organize in the next few days. But the National Hurricane Center is only giving that a slight chance of happening.
Long-range computer models indicate that the environment over the tropical Atlantic might become more conducive to tropical development next week. It would be normal to see the dust recede by the end of August. But we’ll see.
Elsewhere, no tropical development is expected through the weekend.