Bryan Norcross: Hurricane Lowell moving away from Hawaii while the Atlantic sleeps
The lesson, of course, is that we should never focus on the center of the cone. The cone means what the cone means. Be ready for the range of possibilities.
Bryan Norcross Exclusive Analysis: Why Hurricane Lowell Tracked So Close To Hawaii
🌀EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS: Tropical-storm-force winds and hurricane-force gusts remain across parts of Kaua'i as Hurricane Lowell begins to pull away from Hawaii. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross explains why Lowell tracked a lot closer to Hawaii than forecast models initially indicated:
Hurricane Lowell has passed Hawaii and is heading north to die in the open Pacific. The center of the storm passed close to the westernmost main Hawaiian island called Niihau, but it stayed offshore. Still, there's no doubt that winds were near 100 mph on lightly populated Niihau.
Kauai took a pounding from very strong winds over and around the mountains, torrential rain, and a combination of storm surge and huge waves on the south shore. When the sun comes up there today, we'll see how they fared, but we've already seen damage along the coast.
Hurricane Lowell satellite (Bryan Norcross)
The NHC forecast cone slowly shifted toward the islands as it tracked north. In the end, the storm tracked right over the edge of the Friday cone before Lowell made its turn to the north. As we discussed, when a storm slows down, the forecast tracks after that are subject to larger errors.
The lesson, of course, is that we should never focus on the center of the cone. The cone means what the cone means. Be ready for the range of possibilities.
Hurricane Lowell forecast history (Bryan Norcross)
LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
There will continue to be a lot of energy in the ocean because of Hurricane Lowell plus the swell from former Hurricane Karina's interaction with the Lowell swells. Follow local instructions about the hazards for the next few days.
Hurricane Lowell stats (Bryan Norcross)
WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE?
Elsewhere in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Marie is slowly fading out well offshore of northern Mexico. It won't directly have an impact on land, but the energy it put in the ocean combined with that of former Hurricane Karina is causing dangerous conditions at the beach in Southern California.
The waves are very large and powerful, and the combination of the two energy sources can create sneaker waves when the swells randomly add together. Suddenly, a rogue wave can push far up onto the beach or crash onto a pier or jetty. Pay attention to local instructions.
The National Hurricane Center is drawing two potential development areas off the coast of Mexico meaning more tropical depressions or tropical storms will likely eventually form in that part of the ocean. We'll watch them over the next couple of weeks.
In the Atlantic
We're two days from the statistical peak of hurricane season. September 10 is the day that there is most likely to be a named storm active in the Atlantic, the Caribbean, or the Gulf. Obviously that's not going to be the case this year.
Atlantic basin (Bryan Norcross)
Also, September 11 is the latest date that the first hurricane of the season developed since there was satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean in 1966. Clearly, this year is going to be different than anything in the modern record.
There are two years in the long historic record when no hurricanes formed: 1907 and 1914. But there could easily have been one or more hurricanes that a ship wasn't close enough to report.
The long-range computer forecasts continue to show hostile conditions across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic for the foreseeable future. We'll continue to watch the Gulf and the waters near or north of the Bahamas for development this hurricane season.
For now, we're on break.