Bryan Norcross: Gabrielle is slowly pulling itself together while we keep an eye on the long-range forecasts

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is a tilted storm. It continues to operate under strong, dry upper winds, which are pushing the thunderstorms off to the east side and not allowing it to strengthen. But the hostile conditions are forecast to let up.

The strong consensus of the various computer forecasts is that Gabrielle will track over warmer water, and the atmospheric pattern will evolve into one that's conducive for it to intensify. The National Hurricane Center forecast still calls for it to reach hurricane strength as the storm is approaching Bermuda on Sunday.

Most of the computer forecast models predict that Gabrielle will pass Bermuda to the east, although forecasts for poorly developed storms always have larger intrinsic errors, so everyone in Bermuda should stay informed. The storm is forecast to be in the vicinity of the island late Sunday into Monday.

Assuming it does pass to the east, it won't have to miss by very much to have limited effect on the island because the west side will be the weaker side of the storm. Still, if Gabrielle becomes a hurricane, it will put a lot of energy in the water, so beachgoers and boaters beware.

In the far eastern Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is still noting a tropical disturbance just off the coast of Africa. They give it a low chance to become a tropical depression as it moves west-northwest over the next several days.

The atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic is still dry and generally hostile to tropical development. There is no sign that the disturbance could be a significant threat over the next week.

Looking in the long range

Once potential Hurricane Gabrielle is heading off into the North Atlantic, indications are that the weather pattern over the Atlantic will change. High pressure moved to the eastern side of the ocean, which created a path north for Gabrielle. The consensus of the computer forecast models, however, is that the high will build back across the Atlantic toward the U.S., which, if it happens, will tend to block disturbances from turning north so early.

Besides the disturbance the NHC is noting, there is another weak disturbance ahead of it that had its own development area the day before yesterday. The computer models are all over the map on the specifics, but both of these disturbances are shown tracking through or north of the Caribbean, blocked by the high-pressure system.

On the current schedule, the disturbances would arrive in the western Caribbean, near Cuba, or near the Bahamas in nine or 10 days. The shifting overall weather pattern could create an environment more conducive to development.

There's nothing more to say at this point. There is certainly no consensus on what might develop or where exactly it might develop, but the computer models simply tell us to pay attention toward the end of next week and over that following weekend.

It goes without saying that the end of September and the first three weeks of October are still the heart of the hurricane season.

70 years ago today

On September 19, 1955, Hurricane Ione made landfall in North Carolina. It was the last storm in a seven-hurricane onslaught on the East Coast from the Carolinas to New England in 1953, 1954, and 1955.

For whatever reason, hurricanes often come in clusters. Those three years in the 1950 (plus 1960 with Hurricane Donna) had the Mid-Atlantic and New England in the crosshairs, much like the Gulf Coast has been getting hit lately.