Bryan Norcross: Gabrielle is likely to form from disturbance Invest 92L in Atlantic
The computer forecast models almost uniformly predict the system will become Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Gabrielle.
Bryan Norcross: Thunderstorm activity within Invest 92L remains persistent
Invest 92L has officially been designated in the Atlantic, and forecasters believe the system will become a tropical depression and then Tropical Storm Gabrielle toward the end of the week. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross takes a deep dive into the forecast on Sept. 15, 2025.
Updated at 10 a.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 15, 2025
The National Hurricane Center has the odds that the disturbance, now tagged Invest 92L, in the eastern Atlantic will form into at least a tropical depression in the high range. The computer forecast models almost uniformly predict the system will become Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Gabrielle.
The disturbance is currently wrapped in dusty air, but a strong consensus of the computer forecast models predicts that it will find enough moisture to organize and strengthen. The odds are high that the system will stay clear of the Caribbean islands as it passes by late in the week on its way into the central Atlantic.
This graphic provides information on Invest 92L.
(FOX Weather)
A number of the long-range forecasts track the storm in the general direction of Bermuda next week. Residents there will have to keep an eye on it. But that's nine or 10 days off.
Since the system hasn't even developed yet, forecasts always have uncertainty in them, of course, even though the forecast models are in strong agreement. So if you're in Puerto Rico or the nearby islands, just keep an eye out to be sure the system behaves as predicted.
A strong dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. is deflecting any system that tries to come in our direction to the north. That feature is forecast to mostly stay in place for the foreseeable future. Assuming the forecasts are right, systems coming from the east will get diverted before getting anywhere near the East Coast.
This graphic provides and overview of the tropical Atlantic Basin on Sept. 15, 2025.
(FOX Weather)
Strong jet stream dips can sometimes encourage systems developing in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean to pull north. There's no sign of that yet, but late this month and into October, that's what we'll watch for.
Overall, the Atlantic is extremely hostile to tropical development. That doesn’t mean that a system can’t spin up and sneak under a bubble of atmosphere conducive to development, but the generally unsupportive regime minimizes that threat, at least for a while.