Bryan Norcross: Jerry to brush Caribbean islands today, strong storm coming for East Coast

Updated at 9:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025

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Tropical Storm Jerry

Tropical Storm Jerry will make its closest approach to the northeastern Caribbean islands tonight and early tomorrow. The current thinking is that the worst of the storm will stay offshore, but a small shift in the track could bring strong winds over some of the islands.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the potentially affected islands, meaning that winds over 40 mph are possible.

If the center of Jerry passes offshore as is expected, the biggest impact from Jerry over the islands might come later tomorrow when the storm's moisture tail swings through. The squally weather looks to last at least into Saturday. Some of the moisture might reach Puerto Rico, but the Virgin Islands and the islands around the northeastern Caribbean to Guadeloupe appear more likely to be in the moisture's path. 

Pay attention to updated alerts and forecasts. The forecast calls for generally 2-4 inches of rain with some spots receiving more.

Jerry is forecast to reach hurricane strength after it passes the islands, although the atmospheric pattern is not expected to become especially conducive for strengthening. It looks likely that Hurricane Jerry will turn northeast and pass Bermuda by a decent distance early next week.

Coastal storm threat 

The first strong fall cold front of the year is plunging into the Southeast. It will sweep all the way down the Florida Peninsula over the next couple of days. The front will be driven by a sharp and deep dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. That dip will energize a low-pressure system that's likely to develop along the front offshore of the Florida east coast.

The nor'easter-like low is forecast to track north just offshore of the coastline and strengthen as it goes.

By Saturday morning, the coastal storm will be located offshore of the Southeast, pumping gusty winds into the Carolinas. Late Saturday into Sunday, the winds will increase along the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina and across the Tidewater of Virginia. Flooding is likely due to astronomical high tides plus the surge from the powerful onshore winds. The National Weather Service has already issued alerts for much of the coast.

Major flooding is possible in vulnerable areas, including in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Winds at the coast could easily gust to 50 mph. Maybe higher. 

By Sunday, the storm will move north and further strengthen. Winds up to 60 mph, coastal flooding, beach erosion and treacherous surf are all expected if the storm develops as forecast. In addition, heavy and persistent rain will affect coastal sections as far north as southern New England.

The strongest winds in most areas will come from the northeast – which is why a storm like this is called a nor'easter. Northeast-facing coastal areas from the Outer Banks to the Jersey Shore will take the hardest hit, but bays and inlets will also be affected.

Impacts from the storm look to last into Tuesday in the Northeast before the system slowly weakens and moves out to sea.

The storm is unlikely to take on tropical characteristics, but it's not totally impossible that it could happen early next week. It wouldn’t change the impacts at the coast, however.

The storm has not even begun to develop yet, so the predictions are based on the consensus of the various computer models. Obviously, things can change, and the forecasts will likely get updates over the next few days. Everybody along the coast from the Southeast to southern New England should stay well-informed.

In the North Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is painting a small lemon off the top of the map where a non-tropical low has a slight chance of becoming tropical enough to get a name over the next couple of days. It’s no threat to land.

End of hurricane season?

The first October cold front that sweeps the tropical air from the Florida Peninsula marks a significant seasonal change, and it's possible that it will mean the end of hurricane season for the U.S. and surrounding areas. But it's not guaranteed.

It does appear, however, that a strong high-pressure system will dominate the Gulf and the Atlantic near Florida for a week or two after the coastal storm. That means that any tropical activity will be elsewhere – most likely in the Caribbean.

Enjoy the front.