Bryan Norcross: Category 5 Hurricane Melissa heading for Jamaica's south coast

Updated at 10:45 a.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

Hurricane Melissa is an extraordinary Category 5 hurricane. Its high-confidence track will take the center ashore on Jamaica's southwest coast tomorrow morning. Melissa could go through an eyewall replacement cycle on its path north to the Jamaican coast, which would reduce the peak winds, but it would grow the storm in size. A larger storm generally does more damage overall.

Melissa is forecast to be a strong Category 4 or a Category 5 storm at landfall – nominally at 7 a.m ET/6 a.m. local time in Jamaica.

The mountainous terrain in Jamaica will enhance the rainfall from the deep tropical moisture pumped over the island by Melissa's circulation. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting 15 to 30 inches of rain to fall, with some locations receiving up to 40 inches, mostly in the next two days. No place can withstand that kind of drenching without major consequences.

Wind damage is likely to be extreme near and to the right of where Melissa's eye comes ashore and in a swath across the island. Winds will be high and damaging farther out from the center, but a corridor of extreme damage is likely near the storm's track. Winds will be stronger in the mountains, perhaps near 200 mph – comparable to a strong tornado.

In addition, the winds to the right (the east) of the landfall point will be onshore. In the area where the highest winds are blowing, Caribbean seawater will be pushed over the land – that's the storm surge. Somewhere on the south coast of Jamaica is forecast to see water up to 13 feet above normal high tide. In other locations, it won't be that high, but it will still be very dangerous.

South-facing bays and harbors are especially vulnerable because the wind pushes water into them and won't let it out. A major concern is Kingston Harbour, which is surrounded by the capital city.

Kingston International Airport sits on a narrow peninsula in the harbor. It's going to be a close call whether that peninsula gets overwhelmed with storm surge. The airport might be out of commission for some time.

Rainwater from the higher elevations drains through the capital through canals called gullies. The gullies converge and dump their water into Kingston Harbour. But if the storm surge is pushing north, as it will, the drainage system will not function. The seawater will hold the freshwater drainage back, exacerbating the flood potential from the heavy rain.

All of this will peak tomorrow, but today will be an increasingly rough day. People will likely have to stay hunkered down from at least tonight through tomorrow evening. Rescues will be difficult until the water drains, and the winds die down. Many areas are likely to be cut off for an extended time.

Hopefully, everyone has found an elevated location in a concrete building to ride this out. Another difficult problem is where to put a car, scooter or other vehicle. Unless there's a protected, concrete garage, there's no obvious good answer.

Other areas at risk

The peninsula in southwestern Haiti called the Tiburon Peninsula will continue to get pounded by tropical rain. Three feet or more of rain is in their forecast. The south coast of the Dominican Republic will also continue to be impacted by outer bands. More flooding is still possible.

The eastern provinces of Cuba will be next in Melissa's track. Impact is expected there on Wednesday from a Category 3 hurricane. Later Wednesday, Melissa is forecast to track over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Preparations there will have to be finished by tomorrow.

In somewhat good news, after Melissa leaves Jamaica, it will accelerate. So it will pass Cuba and through the Bahamas at a pretty good clip. But it only feels like good news compared to what Jamaica is facing. Full hurricane preparations are required.

Thursday night, Hurricane Melissa is forecast to be in the vicinity of Bermuda. It should be a weaker storm by then, but still at hurricane strength. There's no way to know what the impact will be this far out, but it looks like a close call.

East Coast impact?

Despite what you might have seen on social media, Melissa will head out to sea and will not directly affect the East Coast of the U.S. Fall cold fronts will keep it away.