Bryan Norcross: Rapidly intensifying Hurricane Melissa's multiday assault on Jamaica begins today

Updated at 10 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025

An extremely dangerous and unnerving scenario will unfold tonight, tomorrow and Tuesday across the eastern half of Jamaica, including the capital, Kingston. Extreme rainfall is forecast – it will be measured in feet. Winds at Hurricane Melissa's landfall on the south coast look likely to be at least Category 4. Storm surge is forecast up to 13 feet above normal high tide in the bays and harbors east of the landfall point.

Here is the National Hurricane Center's strong and direct warning about what's coming to Jamaica: "Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities is likely."

Hurricane Melissa will crawl west today over the near-record-warm Caribbean waters while increasingly pumping tropical moisture on tropical-storm-force winds against the tall mountains. Tropical downpours will saturate the ground, laying the groundwork for flooding and mudslides to come.

The consensus of multiple computer forecasts is that the energy in the water will power Melissa to high-end Category 4 or Category 5 intensity. The National Hurricane Center is explicitly forecasting Category 5 strength overnight tonight.

Tomorrow, Melissa is forecast to make a hard right turn, slowly increase its forward speed, and slam into Jamaica's south coast as the strongest storm on record to hit the island. The current expectation is that the winds with Melissa will be significantly stronger than those with Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which caused widespread destruction, although Melissa’s strongest winds will be in a south-to-north corridor. Gilbert raked the island east to west.

Along with the devastating winds, Melissa will push the Caribbean waters over the coast up to 13 feet above normal high tide. This will be devastating to areas in bays and harbors where the peak storm surge is pushed over the shoreline near and to the east of where the center of the storm makes landfall.

It’s too close to call whether Kingston, the capital and by far the largest concentration of population in Jamaica, will be the focus of the worst impacts from Melissa. A deviation of 50 miles one way or the other can make a tremendous difference in what happens at any particular place. But Kingston is especially vulnerable to storms moving from south to north because its harbor opens to the south.

If Melissa makes landfall a short distance west of Kingston, the peak winds will rip through the city, and the storm surge will devastate the coastline. The harbor acts like a catcher's mitt and enhances the surge. The Kingston International Airport is on a narrow peninsula in the harbor. If the worst of the wind and surge is focused there, the airport looks to go underwater.

Every imaginable step to preserve life needs to be taken in the parts of Jamaica forecast to be impacted by Hurricane Melissa. It's critical people find a place to shelter that will remain above potential floodwaters in concrete buildings where they can hide from the wind. Unbelievably, hiding might be required for more than 24 hours.

Other areas at risk

The extreme flood threat continues on the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti, where a total of 3 feet of rain is forecast. Heavy rain and flooding are possible in other parts of the country as well. Heavy rainfall along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic will continue in spots, then slowly taper off as Melissa creeps farther away.

Hurricane conditions look likely in the eastern provinces of Cuba, so the government there has issued a Hurricane Watch. The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands also appear to be in Melissa's path. While the storm will likely still be formidable when it passes over Cuba and the islands, at least it will be moving at a pretty good clip.

Bermuda will have to keep an eye on it late in the week. It's forecast to head in that general direction.

Slow-moving intense hurricanes don't hit mountainous islands very often. But when they do, the results are catastrophic. In 1963, Hurricane Flora crossed over Haiti and parked over eastern Cuba. It was a giant storm that dumped some 5 feet of rain in Jamaica, which was on the periphery. Towns were washed away in Haiti. Eastern Cuba was devastated.

We can only hope that Melissa spares as many people on Jamaica as possible from its worst impacts. It’s critical that everyone understands the magnitude of the threat.