Bryan Norcross: Watching for tropical development in the Caribbean next week
The consensus of the various computer forecasts is that there's a medium chance a depression or storm will organize, but it's more likely to happen after Friday.
Bryan Norcross: Monitoring for tropical development in the Caribbean next week
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross is following a tropical disturbance tracking across the Atlantic that could develop in the Caribbean next week. The computer forecast models paint two scenarios. One is that the depression, storm, or even hurricane will meander around the southern or western Caribbean for a number of days. The other is that it will be scooped up by a dip in the jet stream over Florida and pulled north over the northern Caribbean islands. Watch Bryan's detailed analysis.
Last updated on Oct. 17 at 9 a.m.
The tropical disturbance we've been following is finally within the National Hurricane Center's seven-day window, so they're now drawing a big lemon in the Caribbean where the system has a chance of developing.
The long line from the disturbance's current location in the central Tropical Atlantic to the eastern Caribbean is an indication that development is not expected before the system gets to the vicinity of the islands. On the current schedule, the disturbance is forecast to move into the southeastern Caribbean–over the Windward Islands–Sunday or Monday.
This is satellite imagery of the tropical Atlantic.
(CIRA / FOX Weather)
The NHC has the odds of at least a tropical depression forming by next Friday in the low range. The consensus of the various computer forecasts is that there's a medium chance a depression or storm will organize, but it's more likely to happen after Friday.
The disturbance is tracking west at a very low latitude, especially for October, so land interaction with South America is possible. But if the northern part of the disturbance ends up developing, and the system makes it into the Caribbean, the steering currents are forecast to collapse, and the atmospheric pattern is forecast to be conducive to the system strengthening.
The computer forecast models paint two scenarios. One is that the depression, storm, or even hurricane will meander around the southern or western Caribbean for a number of days. The other is that it will be scooped up by a dip in the jet stream over Florida and pulled north over the northern Caribbean islands. The odds of the second scenario playing out have increased today. All of this assumes the system develops at all, of course.
There is no indication of a threat to Florida or the mainland U.S., although when a system stalls or meanders, attention needs to be paid. Everybody in Jamaica, Puerto Rico, and the surrounding islands will have to stay aware until we see which scenario seems to be developing next week.
Some of the computer forecasts show a storm lingering in the Caribbean for the rest of the month.
It's unlikely there will be anything more to know before next week. For now, we enjoy the change of season in Florida and the Southeast as the second cold front in a week pushes through.
This graphic shows the tropical Atlantic.
(Bryan Norcross)
South of Eastern Canada
The large low-pressure system well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and south of Atlantic Canada is already producing winds of at least 60 mph. It’s the low pushing the latest cold front south.
Over the next couple of days, the system will track over the warm Gulf Stream waters. Sometimes this can trigger a tropical-type system to spin up in the center of the giant circulation. If that happens, it will be named Melissa.
The system’s window of opportunity is short, however. Cold water is ahead. So the National Hurricane Center has the odds of development in the very low range.