Bryan Norcross: Powerful nor'easter to impact mid-Atlantic, Northeast Sunday and Monday

Updated at 10 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 12, 2025

If it were winter, we would be talking about a blizzard with feet of snow. The weather pattern is the same, but the temperature is not cold enough. A non-tropical low-pressure system is forecast to strengthen off the mid-Atlantic coast today and more or less park near South Jersey through tomorrow.

It's a very complex weather pattern comprised of two separate low-pressure centers. The first one moved north from offshore of Florida and pummeled the coastline from Central Florida to the Carolinas. The second low will form farther north, pounding the coast from Virginia to New England with winds gusting over 50 mph and tides 3 feet above normal and higher in some spots.

The tides will be high enough to create moderate to major flooding along the entire coastline and in all waterways connected to the ocean. Roads with overwash and erosion will be widespread. Remember, the flooding will be saltwater, which can damage your car. If you have to drive through it, try to wash the underside of your car ASAP.

Vulnerable areas in and near the lower Chesapeake Bay may be inundated with major flooding at times of high tide. A similar situation is likely on the Delaware coast and areas near Delaware Bay. The entire Jersey Shore will receive moderate to major flooding with high tides running up to 3 feet above normal. Inland bays and tidal waterways will be especially vulnerable.

Here is the map from the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey, serving that region.

Around New York City, high tide will be significantly higher than normal in New York Harbor. On Long Island, the western half of the island on both the south and north shore will be subject to extremely high tides – over 3 feet above normal in some areas. Major flooding is forecast around the west end of Great South Bay due to the strong east winds pushing the water toward the west.

Here is the map from the National Weather Service in Upton, New York, serving the tri-state region.

Strong and persistent winds will likely cause power outages near the coast in the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. The winds look likely to peak late today and into tomorrow from New England to the Jersey Shore as the storm and strong high pressure to the north squeeze the air between them.

Stay alert and aware of the latest forecasts. This is going to be an unusual storm due to its duration. 

In the tropics

Former Jerry is just a non-tropical low-pressure system in the middle of the Atlantic. It’s not a threat to land.

The National Hurricane Center gives the robust tropical disturbance – technically Invest 97L – a medium chance of developing into at least a tropical depression this week. It has a decent chance of becoming Tropical Storm Lorenzo.

The system will move north into the open Atlantic.

Just exiting Africa is a disturbance worth watching. Some computer forecasts show it reaching the Caribbean islands in seven or eight days, but many also dissipate it. So far, there’s no consensus. 

It’s unusual to be tracking a system just emerging from Africa this time of year, but it happens.