Bryan Norcross: Tropical Storm Chantal heading toward landfall in the Carolinas

Tropical Storm Chantal formed more or less on schedule from the old front draped from North Florida across the warm Gulf Stream waters offshore of Georgia and the Carolinas. The atmospheric pattern is only marginal over the system, so dramatic intensification is not expected before landfall during the first half of tomorrow (Sunday).

The steering is courtesy of the upper-level disturbance that was sitting over Florida enhancing the rainfall. That system has now moved into the Gulf. The circulation around the right side of the disturbance is from the south, so that will push Chantal and the attached band of deep tropical moisture toward the Carolina coast.

There is high confidence in the forecast track and that very heavy rain will fall in the tropical moisture bands. The system is not symmetric, however, because the upper-level winds are tilting it toward the east, so the heaviest rain will fall to the right of where Chantal's center makes landfall. The focus looks likely to be from the Myrtle Beach, SC area through eastern North Carolina. The National Weather Service is predicting 2-4 inches of rain with Chantal, with some spots getting more.

Some good news, general drought conditions across eastern North Carolina mean that the soil can absorb moisture and rivers are relatively low, so the flood threat is not as high as it would normally be. But too much rain in any one spot can still be dangerous, of course.

Along the coast east of the landfall point, where the winds will be onshore, they'll likely gust to 50 or 60 mph in some spots. Secure anything that might blow around from along the northern coast of South Carolina and east through North Carolina.

The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Chantal to dissipate by early next week over eastern North Carolina. There is some indication that it might regenerate over the Atlantic, but it wouldn't be a threat.

Now that the upper disturbance is moving away from Florida, the rain across the peninsula will be less widespread. Chantal's moisture tail will still cause blinding tropical downpours in some areas, however.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf, the tropical system generating machine is shut down. Nothing more is expected for the next week, at least.