Bryan Norcross: Better chance of development off Southeast coast

Updated at 9 a.m. ET on Thursday, July 3, 2025

A dying front that has been causing heavy rain over the Carolinas will interact with an upper-level disturbance over Florida over the next few days. Out of that combination, a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm has a decent chance of forming off the Southeast coast. The National Hurricane Center has upped the odds to the high-medium range.

Even if a circulation develops, it's not likely to change the threat from this system, which is the potential for flooding. Pockets of 5-plus-inch rainfall have already occurred across Florida and coastal Georgia and the Carolinas. Significant additional rainfall is expected into next week, especially in eastern North Carolina.

Through Saturday, the upper-level system that has been triggering the rain in Florida will remain in place, so tropical downpours are likely to continue over the so-called Sunshine State. By Sunday, however, the focus shifts to the eastern part of the Carolinas and the potential tropical system. Though a tail of tropical moisture will still be draped across the Florida Peninsula.

There is strong consensus among the various computer forecast models, including the new AI models, that the formation zone will be off the Georgia coast, if an organized system indeed forms. Early next week, it looks likely that the disturbance, tropical depression or tropical storm – whatever it ends up being – will track along the Carolina coast and out to sea.

It's too early to know if the potential system will track inland or stay offshore of the Carolinas. It's not expected to become very strong, but if winds over the ocean reach 40 mph, it will get the name Chantal.

Stay aware of the latest alerts for your area. The overall system and the individual thunderstorm cells are expected to be slow-moving, so local flooding is a real possibility for the next couple of days in Florida, then shifting to the Carolinas.