Byran Norcross: Watching for a new disturbance set to move off Africa Sunday

Tropics are relatively quiet in the Atlantic but NHC monitors one area to watch

A tropical wave coming off Africa is being monitored for development but so far only has a low chance of succeeding. 

Updated Saturday 9:30 a.m. ET

All is calm across the tropics this Labor Day weekend, unlike many Labor Day weekends of the past. The most infamous landfalling hurricane in the record books was called the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. It destroyed the area around Islamorada in the middle and upper Florida Keys. Besides having the strongest estimated winds at landfall of 185 mph, the lowest pressure ever recorded on land in the world was measured during that storm.
 
But the only thing to watch in 2025 is to see what happens with a disturbance that is forecast to move off the African coast tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center is still giving it a low chance of developing over the next week as it tracks across the tropical belt. Some of the computer forecast models give it a little better chance of becoming a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm for a few days before it runs into hostile upper-level winds closer to the Caribbean islands.

(NOAA)

 
A few long-range forecast models show it as a viable storm north of the islands, but that’s in fantasy time nearly two weeks from now. Those long-range forecasts are interesting to look at, but tend to flop around, so there’s really nothing to know there.
 
Nothing is going to happen fast. The system is forecast to plod across the tropical Atlantic, taking more than a week to even reach the vicinity of the islands. 
 
There are some indications that the Atlantic, in general, will become more conducive to tropical development in the second week of September or the middle of the month. It’s logical that will happen, but we’ll see.
 
For now, enjoy the Labor Day weekend that is hurricane and tropical storm-free.