Live updates: Tracking holiday weekend snow threat as El Niño signals grow for 2026
A major pattern shift is hitting America as a series of storms threatens to buries the Sierra Nevada under feet of "insane" snow while a massive 1,000-mile-wide storm prepares to wash out Valentine’s Day plans. Stay tuned for live updates on the latest weather alerts and coverage of the day's big weather news.
A pattern change is shifting America's weather with coast-to-coast impacts.
- El Niño 2026 watch: A new report from the Climate Prediction Center reveals how likely El Niño will develop this summer, potentially suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity this year.
- Sierra snow surge: After weeks of unusually dry weather, several rounds of mountain snow are impacting California. An even stronger, slower-moving system is expected to arrive late Saturday, potentially dropping feet of heavy snow through Washington’s Birthday weekend.
- Northeast snow threat: While the Atlantic corridor is seeing warmer temperatures now, forecasters are closely watching for more wintry weather to arrive this weekend.
- Valentine's flash flood risk: Deep Gulf moisture is set to collide with a slow-moving front, threatening holiday plans from Texas to the Carolinas. Major hubs like Atlanta and Dallas are under the gun for heavy rain and flight delays starting Friday night. Click here for live updates from FOX Weather.
NASCAR drivers and fans are eyeing this weekend's cross-country storm, ahead of the unfurling of the green flag Sunday afternoon at the Daytona 500.
Zach Dean, NASCAR columnist for Outkick.com, discussed the impact of rain on the big race with FOX Weather Meteorologists Stephen Morgan and Marissa Torres.
Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected to slam the South this weekend.
A powerful, 1,000-mile-wide storm system is set to sweep across the South this Valentine’s Day weekend, bringing widespread drenching rain and the threat of severe thunderstorms from Texas to the Carolinas. Rain totals are expected to reach 1 to 4 inches, with localized "training" storms potentially dumping up to 6 inches, which could trigger flash flooding in urban areas and low-lying neighborhoods.
Click here for live updates from FOX Weather on this growing storm threat.
Latest radar image showing flurries flying west of Baltimore and Washington this morning.
Flurries are flying west of Interstate 95 this morning under a deck of thick clouds. Those flurries are expected to continue into early afternoon, but accumulating snow is unlikely.
Temperatures are predicted to warm into the 40s and 50s in the Northeast on Saturday.
"Slush season" has arrived. Temperatures in major hubs like Philadelphia and NYC are flirting with the mid-30s and 40s today, but the ground remains chilled from the recent deep freeze.
This creates a "slushie" effect where the top layer of snow melts into a gray soup while the bottom layer remains a treacherous sheet of ice.
Even with temperatures rising, the February sun angle is still relatively low. This means that while your lawn might look clear, north-facing stoops, alleyways, and parking spot savers (those giant piles of gray snow) will likely linger for days as frozen obstacles.
As we head into the Valentine's and President's Day weekend, a shift toward even milder air and potential rain will turn those remaining snowbanks into mini-lakes, making high-quality waterproof boots the must-have fashion accessory of the week.
After weeks of relentless arctic blasts and impactful winter storms, a significant pattern flip is providing the Northeast with a much-needed thaw. High-pressure is replacing deep-digging troughs, shifting the focus of cold and snow to the Western U.S. and allowing unseasonably mild air to flood the Atlantic corridor.
For millions from D.C. to Boston, this means a break from the shovel; daily highs are projected to climb into the 40s and even 50s through next week, effectively putting winter on a temporary hiatus.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model showing little to no snow in the East over the next 7 days. (Source: WeatherBELL)
The upcoming week’s forecast is remarkably quiet, with most major metro areas seeing little to no snow accumulation. While this weekend's big storm may bring spotty rain or a light wintry mix to the interior mountains late this weekend, coastal hubs like New York City and Philadelphia are trending toward a snow-free stretch through next week.
This prolonged reprieve is helping to dent the glacial shell that has covered the region, providing ideal conditions for travel and outdoor plans as we head toward the President's Day holiday.
The multi-year grip of La Niña is finally loosening. According to the latest update from the Climate Prediction Center, there is now a 60% chance that the Pacific will transition to "ENSO-neutral" conditions between in the weeks ahead.
While chilly sea surface temperatures still linger in the central Pacific, a significant surge of subsurface warmth is moving eastward—acting like an underwater heater that is rapidly eroding the cold La Niña base.
This shift means the reliable "steering wheel" of our winter weather is being removed, likely leading to a more variable and unpredictable spring for much of the U.S.
Looking further ahead, the "neutral" phase is expected to persist through the summer, but a bigger flip is on the horizon.
Forecast models are now signaling a 50-60% chance of El Niño forming by late summer or fall of 2026.
El Niño typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic Basin, suppressing tropical development.
If this rapid transition verifies, it could have major implications for the 2026 hurricane season, as El Niño typically increases wind shear in the Atlantic, which can help suppress storm development.
For now, we are in a "wait and see" period as the atmosphere begins to decouple from the old La Niña pattern and resets for the year ahead.
Latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows much of the South is experiencing significant drought conditions.
FOX Weather has just received the latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor and it shows worsening drought conditions across the Southern U.S.
According to the report, conditions worsened followed another mostly dry week in the High Plains, western Midwest, the eastern southern Plains of Oklahoma and Texas eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the western Carolinas.
Despite scattered precipitation in some locations, rain and snow deficits continue to grow, with drying soils and low streamflows supporting intensification of drought conditions.
In southern Georgia and Florida, fire danger continues to rise.
Wildfire activity increased during the week, and multiple water management districts, including the South Florida Water Management District, have issued water shortage advisories or warnings due to declining groundwater and surface water levels.
The report says from August 14, 2025, through February 10, 2026, Rio Grande City, Texas ranks as the fifth warmest and third driest on record dating back to 1928, while McCook, Texas ranks as the second warmest and sixth driest since 1942 according to NWS and NOAA data.
Weatherstem camera at Tampa International Airport showing very dense fog shrouding the airport.
Tampa is experiencing travel trouble this morning as a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10:00 a.m. ET, covering Hillsborough and surrounding counties.
Visibility at Tampa International Airport (TPA) and across major corridors like I-75 has dropped to a dangerous quarter-mile or less, forcing several early morning flights into delays. The fog is expected to thin out by late morning, leading to a mostly sunny afternoon.
The Climate Prediction Center is set to release an update on the current status of La Niña in the Pacific, and the expected development of El Niño later this year.
FOX Weather will provide comprehensive coverage when the report is released later this morning.
While millions in the South prepare for a rainy washout, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are eyeing a complex forecast for the Valentine’s and President's Day weekend. After a brief thaw earlier this week, a clash of seasons is set to unfold as a sprawling weekend storm brings the threat of snow back to the region.
Forecast confidence is currently split between "wet and white" as a surge of milder air battles lingering cold entrenched in the interior. The FOX Forecast Center says most computer model guidance has pulled back when it comes to snow for the region. As of now, it appears the higher terrain of West Virginia and Maryland could still see flakes late Sunday into Monday.
Computer forecast models show little snow accumulation across the Northeast this weekend.
For major cities like Washington D.C., Philadelphia, and New York City, the forecast is welcome news. While early guidance suggested a major hit, the most recent trends favor a brief rain-snow mix or just plain rain altogether. Accumulating snow appears unlikely, though a slight shift in the storm's track could easily push numbers higher.
Live Coverage begins here