Live updates: Strong tornadoes, baseball-size hail target America's Heartland in storm outbreak
Follow along for the latest updates as a severe weather outbreak targets parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri with the threat of strong tornadoes and 3-inch hail. Forecasters warn that "life-threatening" storms will intensify throughout Friday afternoon, putting over 68 million people on alert across the Heartland.
A particularly dangerous situation is unfolding near Three Rivers, Michigan as a radar indicated, damaging tornado swirls east in southwestern Michigan.
Confirmed Tornado in St. Joseph County, Michigan
At 352 p.m. EST, a "large and extremely dangerous tornado" was located over Three Rivers, moving northeast at 40 mph, the National Weather Service said.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Moore Park, Fishers Lake, Nottawa, And Wasepi.
A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of Oklahoma and Texas until 10 p.m. CST tonight.
Strong tornadoes are possible, tennis ball sized hail 2.5" in diameter and scattered wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible.
Tornado Watch issued for parts of Texas and Oklahoma
Dallas and Oklahoma City are included in the watch that has over 11 million people across the two southern states under threat.
In a new outlook, the Storm Prediction Center has increased the tornado threat in parts of Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska.
Tornado Threat increases in parts of Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska
While the overall forecast hasn’t shifted much, one key change stands out.
A Level 3/5 tornado threat is now in place for covering an area in the three Central U.S. states, including Topeka and Kansas City.
Tornado potential is increasing this evening near the surface low and warm front across far southeastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. With conditions becoming more favorable, forecasters have raised tornado probabilities.
Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe has declared a State of Emergency in preparation for potentially dangerous severe weather forecasted across the state.
“The National Weather Service has cautioned that the threat of severe storms throughout the state tonight may produce damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes,” said Governor Kehoe.
“I urge all Missourians to pay attention to their local weather forecasts, follow official warnings, and have multiple ways to receive alerts – especially overnight.”
Under the order declaring a State of Emergency, the Missouri State Emergency Operations Plan has been activated, which enables state agencies to coordinate directly with local jurisdictions to expedite assistance.
When meteorologists talk about a "conditional" threat, they are essentially saying the atmosphere is like a loaded gun—it has all the energy it needs to be dangerous, but it still needs a trigger to pull.
Today is a perfect example of this. We have record-breaking heat and high humidity acting as fuel, but a strong cap of warm air about a mile up is currently acting like a lid on a boiling pot, preventing storms from firing off.
If supercell thunderstorms can develop today, they'll have the potential to spin up strong (EF-2+) tornadoes across a huge swath of the central U.S.
Here is what that "conditional" setup means for you today:
The "all-or-nothing" scenario: If that atmospheric lid stays on tight, we might see very little activity. However, if the lid is removed by intense afternoon heating or an approaching cold front, the pent-up energy will be released all at once.
High impact, low coverage: Because the threat is conditional, we might only see one or two storms develop. The catch is that any storm that does manage to break through will likely turn violent immediately, tapping into a dangerous environment capable of producing intense tornadoes or extremely large hail.
To help show this, the Storm Prediction Center just launched a new feature in its everyday outlook this week called Conditional Intensity Group. It tells us that even if the chance of a storm hitting your backyard is low, the intensity could be extreme if it actually happens.
Forecasters are using new levels to describe this potential: CIG 2 signals a dangerous environment for intense tornadoes (EF3+) or giant hail, while Level 3 is reserved for rare, historic-level outbreaks.
Thunderstorms have prompted the Federal Aviation Administration to issue a ground stop for Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL), the nation's busiest aviation hub.
This specific order is currently impacting nearby regional airports only, with the hold on departures destined for Atlanta scheduled to remain in effect until 2:45 PM ET.
A ground stop has been ordered for Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.
Travelers should expect a significant ripple effect as this world-class hub deals with the weather.
While the ground stop is currently localized to the closest surrounding airports, history shows that even a brief pause at ATL can quickly lead to cascading delays across the entire Southeast and beyond.
If you are flying into or out of Atlanta this afternoon, check your airline's app immediately for the latest updates on your flight's status.
Analysis shows instability is rapidly increasing across the central U.S. ahead of an approaching storm system.
Atmospheric instability is rapidly climbing across the Heartland right now as record-breaking heat and moisture surge northward, setting the stage for a dangerous afternoon of severe weather.
With temperatures soaring into the 70s and 80s—roughly 20 to 30 degrees above average—the environment is becoming high-octane fuel for explosive storm development.
The FOX Forecast Center is specifically watching a Level 3 of 5 risk zone covering central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri, where this unstable air is expected to trigger numerous severe storms as a cold front moves in.
Recent rains have trigged significant river flooding in the Ohio Valley.
Major flooding along the East Fork White River in Indiana is reaching a critical point as water levels in some areas are expected to crest at near-record heights today.
While these major flood levels are forecast to begin receding to moderate stages by this afternoon, widespread minor-to-moderate flooding will persist across the region through at least mid-next week.
Record warm air is surging north right now, fueling today's severe weather outbreak.
Spring is arriving with a vengeance today as a surge of record-breaking heat provides the high-octane fuel for a severe weather outbreak across the heartland.
Temperatures are forecast to soar into the 70s and 80s across the Plains and Midwest, with some areas seeing readings 20 to 30 degrees above seasonal averages.
This unseasonable warmth is being pulled north by a strengthening storm system, creating a volatile clash of seasons as it meets cooler Canadian air.
Supercell Composite Parameter shows conditions are becoming more favorable for "supercells" in Oklahoma this afternoon.
The FOX Forecast Center says conditions are becoming more favorable for supercell thunderstorms to develop across the Plains this afternoon.
Right now, the Supercell Composite Parameter, a specific metric that indicates the necessary ingredients for rotating, long-lived thunderstorms—including moisture, instability, and wind shear—is increasing ahead of an approaching storm system in Oklahoma.
If you live in the region, keep a close eye on the horizon, as these conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for the development of discrete cells capable of producing both destructive hail and tornadoes.
The National Weather Service in Norman has confirmed that at least three tornadoes hit western Oklahoma during Thursday night's severe weather.
Survey teams are currently on the ground in several areas, including Major, Alfalfa, and Grant Counties, to finalize these counts and determine the official intensity ratings for each twister.
FlightAware MiseryMap showing flight disruptions at major hubs across America.
A massive wave of flight disruptions is rippling across the national aviation network today as severe weather hammers the country’s most critical hubs, resulting in over 3,100 total disruptions across the U.S. with Chicago serving as the epicenter of the chaos.
Chicago O'Hare International Airport and Midway International have recorded at least 830 disruptions, including over 715 delays and 115 cancellations.
Because Chicago is a primary connecting hub, these delays have triggered a massive ripple effect that has scrubbed short-haul feeder flights from cities like Des Moines and St. Louis and even severed international routes to London, Paris, and Doha.
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to erupt from the Great Lakes to Texas this afternoon-evening.
The atmosphere is loading the bases this afternoon, and we are tracking a high-stakes weather setup from the Plains to the Great Lakes. If you’re looking at the radar and seeing early rain in Oklahoma and Kansas, don't let that fool you—that's just the warm-up act.
The FOX Forecast Center is watching low-level moisture (the muggy air you can feel) streaming north, which is acting like high-octane fuel for the storms expected to ignite later today.
Here is the breakdown of what we are watching at this hour:
Afternoon ignition
By mid-afternoon, we expect individual, powerful storms called supercells to fire up across Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Think of these as the solo performers of the storm world—they are dangerous because they rotate and can stay active for hours.
These storms will bring a major risk for very large hail. We are also watching the low-level jet, a stream of fast-moving air just above the ground that will strengthen after sunset. This adds twist to the atmosphere, meaning any storm that stays individual could produce a strong tornado.
The evening shift
As we head into tonight, those individual supercells will likely clump together into bowing clusters. When you hear meteorologists talk about upscale growth, they just mean the storms are joining forces to form a solid line.
While this sometimes lowers the tornado threat slightly, it trades it for a damaging wind threat. This line of storms is expected to plow through Iowa and Missouri this evening and could hold its strength as it pushes toward Illinois and Wisconsin overnight.
Today's 'wild card' in the South
Down in Oklahoma and Texas, there’s a bit of a "wait and see" game with the dryline—the boundary where dry desert air meets moist Gulf air. If storms can break through the cap (that lid of warm air aloft), they will have massive amounts of energy to work with.
Whether it's a lone supercell this afternoon or a fast-moving cold front tonight, the message is the same: have your FOX Weather app alerts turned up loud, especially since some of this action will be rolling through while you're asleep.
Future radar showing the timing of storms developing across the Heartland later today.
Today’s severe weather threat is expected to rapidly intensify this afternoon as a powerful storm system sweeps across the Plains and into the Midwest.
Future Radar shows that by 5:00 p.m. CT, thunderstorms will be firing from north of Kansas City down through Oklahoma and into north Texas.
Major hubs like Oklahoma City, Fort Smith, and Dallas are in the immediate path of these storms, which are forecast to bring a dangerous combination of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.
This afternoon timing is particularly critical as it coincides with the evening commute, meaning residents in the path of these storms should have a plan in place and a way to receive alerts before the most intense weather arrives.
Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are all expected across a 1,500-mile stretch of the central U.S. today.
A severe weather outbreak is targeting the nation's midsection today, bringing a triple threat of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes to millions of residents.
Forecasters say a massive corridor of concern stretches from the Texas Hill Country all the way to the Great Lakes, with the most intense activity expected this afternoon and evening.
For those in the path of these storms, here is the breakdown of today's primary threats:
- Large hail: A significant risk for destructive hail covers a broad area from Austin and Dallas up through Kansas City and Des Moines, extending as far northeast as Green Bay and Detroit.
- Damaging winds: Potentially life-threatening wind gusts are forecast for a central slice of the country, impacting major hubs including Oklahoma City, Omaha, St. Louis, and Milwaukee.
- Tornadoes: The threat for tornadoes is particularly concerning today, with the bullseye centered over the Ozarks and Mid-Mississippi Valley, including cities like Fayetteville, Kansas City, Des Moines, and Chicago.
Radar image showing thunderstorms moving into the Kansas City metro area right now.
Scattered thunderstorms are moving into the Kansas City area this morning as a powerful storm system begins to take hold of the region.
While this initial round is mainly producing heavy rain and small hail, it is setting the stage for a much more significant severe weather threat later this afternoon and evening.
Darkening skies over Guthrie, Oklahoma as strong storms approach.
A camera in Guthrie, Oklahoma, shows darkening skies this morning as the first wave of strong storms begins to push into the region.
These low-hanging, ominous clouds provide a clear view of the atmospheric moisture currently building across the heartland ahead of this afternoon's primary severe weather threat.
Radar showing a Severe Thunderstorm Warning north of Oklahoma City right now.
A first round of strong thunderstorms is already developing north of Oklahoma City this morning, pushing through areas including Stillwater and Guthrie.
While these morning storms are mostly "elevated," meaning they are primarily a threat for small hail and downpours, they are a sign of the increasing moisture and instability in the region.
This early activity is just a precursor to a much more dangerous round of storms expected to ignite this afternoon as the atmosphere fully primes itself for a severe storm outbreak.
Tornadoes are most likely to develop across eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and western Arkansas later today.
While a massive 1,500-mile stretch of the heartland is on alert today, the most serious bullseye for tornado activity is zeroing in on a corridor from eastern Oklahoma and Kansas up through Nebraska, western Missouri, and southern Iowa.
The FOX Forecast Center is particularly concerned about the evening hours as a powerful low-level jet of wind begins to crank up over the Plains. This surge of energy provides the atmospheric spin needed to turn individual thunderstorms into intense, rotating supercells.
Any storm that stays on its own during this window will have the potential to produce a strong tornado, especially as these storms move along and south of a warm front draped across the Midwest.
Farther south into the Ozarks and western Arkansas, the situation is a bit more of a wild card but remains equally dangerous. While there is some uncertainty about exactly how many storms will fire up along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon, any storm that manages to break through the atmospheric cap will have plenty of fuel to work with.
If these storms can take hold, they will pose a threat for all hazards—including the potential for strong tornadoes and very large hail.
Because the risk is expected to persist after sunset and even into the overnight hours as the storms form into a fast-moving line, it is critical to download the FOX Weather App now and enable critical life-saving weather alerts.
A ground stop is in effect for Chicago O'Hare until 10:30 a.m. ET.
The Federal Aviation Administration has issued a ground stop for Chicago O’Hare International Airport this morning as a line of strong storms and dense fog move through the region.
The ground stop is currently in effect until 10:30 a.m. ET, causing significant delays for travelers heading into one of the nation’s busiest aviation hubs.
Heavy rain and low visibility have already led to more than 1,200 flight disruptions today across the U.S., with both O’Hare and Midway facing operational challenges during the peak morning travel window.
While this initial round of weather is causing immediate travel headaches, it is also setting the stage for a more volatile atmosphere later this afternoon. Once the morning rain clears, a second, stronger line of storms is expected to target the Chicago metro area tonight, bringing a renewed risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Radar image showing a line of strong storms roaring into Chicago this morning.
A line of strong storms is tracking toward the Chicago metro area this morning, marking the first of two expected rounds of active weather for the region today.
These initial storms are moving through a soup of dense fog that has already caused travel disruptions at O'Hare and Midway airports.
While this morning's activity is primarily a threat for heavy rain and localized flooding, forecasters warn that any embedded cells could produce small hail and gusty winds as they push through the city and surrounding suburbs.
The morning rain is expected to clear out by the early afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb into the 60s and 70s—potentially nearing record highs for early March.
This surge of warmth will further prime the atmosphere for a second, more potent round of weather late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Residents should remain weather aware throughout the day, as the FOX Forecast Center indicates that the overnight line of storms will carry a higher risk for damaging wind gusts up to 50 mph and the isolated possibility of a tornado.
FOX Weather meteorologists are closely watching a crucial atmospheric feature today known as a "cap," which is currently acting as an invisible lid over the heartland and preventing storms from firing off early.
This cap is essentially a layer of warm air sitting a few thousand feet above the ground that stops rising air parcels in their tracks, effectively bottling up the day's growing heat and humidity.
While this keeps the radar clear for now, it is also allowing a massive amount of energy to build up near the surface, much like pressure inside a shaken soda bottle.
Atmospheric sounding showing a 'cap' in place over Oklahoma City this morning.
The danger comes later this afternoon and evening when the cap is expected to break due to intense daytime heating and an approaching weather disturbance.
When that lid finally lifts or weakens, the pent-up energy is released all at once, often resulting in explosive storm development.
This is why storms that fire after a strong cap breaks are frequently more violent, as they have a full day's worth of fuel to tap into instantly.
Residents in the path of today's threat should not be fooled by the calm morning skies; the late-day arrival of these storms will be rapid and powerful once that atmospheric lid is removed.
Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center have expanded today’s Level 3 of 5 threat area further into northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and southwest Iowa as the threat of destructive hail grows.
This shift comes as meteorologists track a volatile setup where individual supercells are expected to ignite this afternoon along a warm front moving through the region.
Severe thunderstorms are expected to erupt across the central U.S. later this afternoon.
These initial storms are the primary concern for residents, as they pack the potential to drop stones larger than three inches in diameter—roughly the size of an apple—which can easily shatter windshields and damage roofs.
While the hail threat is the early headline, the danger will transition toward a tornado risk as the sun goes down.
A strengthening low-level jet stream after sunset will provide the twist in the atmosphere needed to turn these supercells into tornado producers, and FOX Weather meteorologists warn that a few strong tornadoes are possible.
As the night progresses, these individual storms will likely cluster together into a fast-moving line of wind.
Governor Kevin Stitt confirmed Friday morning that two people were killed during severe weather in Major County on Thursday night.
State officials identified the victims as a mother and daughter who were caught in the path of the storm. Emergency responders across northern Oklahoma reported significant damage following the storms, including destroyed homes and downed power lines that left thousands without electricity.
State officials are currently assessing the destruction in the affected areas as families begin the recovery process. Governor Stitt issued a statement expressing his condolences to the grieving family and to all residents impacted by the storm.
Yesterday’s storms were just the opening act. Ten states are bracing for impact as a massive 1,500-mile stretch of the heartland faces a destructive hail threat through this evening.
We’re talking a high-stakes zone for over 68 million people—including major hubs like Dallas, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, and Chicago—where the atmosphere is primed to trigger tornadoes, drop large hail, and whip up 70 mph damaging winds.
Today's storms could drop huge hail from Texas to Wisconsin.
Supercells are expected to fire up this afternoon, packing enough punch to shatter windshields and dent roofs before they likely merge into a fast-moving, destructive wind line tonight.
If you're anywhere between Texas and Wisconsin, now is the time to get the cars under cover and keep your phone weather alerts on loud, because this spring breakout isn't playing around.
The Southern and Central Plains were battered on Thursday night as a volatile weather system swept through the region, producing a dangerous mix of tornadoes and destructive hail.
The Storm Prediction Center confirmed a total of seven tornado reports, with the most significant activity concentrated in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
Dozens of severe weather reports show the path of Thursday night's storms in the Plains.
The storm's hammer came in the form of massive hail, with at least 15 reports of large stones that caused widespread property damage. Residents in Lakeview, Texas, reported hail reaching 2.25 inches in diameter—roughly the size of a hen egg—while similar reports of golf-ball to hen-egg-sized hail poured in from Dewey County, Oklahoma, and Sumner County, Kansas.
The combination of high winds and heavy rain left more than 10,000 customers without power across the three-state area as the supercells tore through the night.
As of early Friday morning, emergency crews are still assessing the full extent of the damage. While many of the tornadoes stayed over relatively rural land, the intensity of the storms serve as a stark reminder of the region's vulnerability during the early spring storm season.
This system is now tracking eastward, with a massive corridor stretching from Texas toward the Great Lakes bracing for a potential second round of severe weather later today.
Today is a bit of a "wait and see" kind of day for the Heartland, and while that might sound like good news, the setup actually has meteorologists on high alert.
We are looking at a conditional threat in many areas—which is weather-speak for: if storms can actually get going, they are likely to turn violent very quickly.
The science behind it is a classic spring battle. We have a powerful jet stream screaming overhead and a surge of warm, sticky air pushing up from the Gulf of America. This is creating a lot of fuel in the atmosphere over Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri.
If the afternoon heat gets intense enough to force storms to develop, the storms that form will have everything they need to rotate and produce strong tornadoes and very large hail.
Wind shear, or the changing of winds with height in the atmosphere, will create favorable conditions for tornadoes later today.
The most nervous spot on the map right now is ahead of a cold front—that boundary where cooler, dry air clashes with warm, humid air. Forecasters are watching eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and southwest Missouri closely. If a storm can manage to fire up in the area this afternoon, it will be in an environment perfectly cooked for a long-track tornado.
As we head into the evening and overnight hours, the threat doesn't just disappear; it changes shape. A cold front will start pushing through, likely turning those individual storms into a solid line. This means the risk will shift toward damaging wind gusts and spin-up tornadoes along the line as it moves into Arkansas and Missouri.
Since this could happen while you’re sleeping, make sure your FOX Weather App critical weather alerts are turned up loud and your NOAA weather radio is ready to go.
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to slam a dozen states across America's Heartland today.
Millions of people across the central United States should stay weather-aware today as a significant storm system moves through the Heartland.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Level 3 of 5 severe storm threat area for a corridor including central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri, where record-breaking warmth is clashing with an incoming cold front.
Major cities like Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, and Kansas City are in the primary path for these storms, which are expected to fire up between 3:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. local time.
The main hazards with this afternoon's activity include the potential for strong tornadoes (EF-2 or higher) and massive hail reaching the size of baseballs. As the evening progresses, these individual storms will likely merge into a fast-moving line capable of producing destructive 80 mph wind gusts as it pushes toward the Mississippi Valley.
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