The atmosphere is officially taking a turn for the dangerous as the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky this afternoon.
With unseasonably warm temperatures in the 60s and 70s acting as fuel, a powerful cold front is beginning to trigger discrete thunderstorms that are expected to rapidly intensify.
Forecasters are particularly concerned about the potential for strong, long-track tornadoes (EF-2 or greater) within the Level 3/5 zone, which covers a significant corridor from Southern Illinois through South-Central Indiana.
Storms are already initiating in southwestern Indiana and eastern Illinois, moving northeast at high speeds. This is a classic "high-shear" setup, where powerful winds aloft are providing the "twist" necessary for storms to rotate.
If you are in major hubs like Indianapolis, Bloomington, or Louisville, now is the time to activate your severe weather plan.
The latest 12z model suite has delivered a reality check for snow lovers across the Northeast, as recent data suggests a notable shift in the track of this weekend's brewing nor'easter.
While earlier runs hinted at a massive, blockbuster event for the I-95 corridor, the most recent guidance from has begun to trend farther offshore.
This eastward nudge is a game-changer for cities like Philadelphia, New York, and Boston; it suggests that the core of the storm's moisture may stay tucked out over the Atlantic, leaving the coast with a glancing blow of light snow rather than a major accumulation.
For the Monday morning commute, this trend is a welcome development for road crews but a source of frustration for those hoping for a significant winter wallop.
FOX Weather meteorologists say that the atmospheric trough responsible for pulling the storm toward the coast won't be oriented in a way that would move the low close to the coast.
While we are still looking at a bombing coastal low that will whip up gale-force winds and coastal flooding, the prospect of a double-digit snow event for the big cities is fading.
However, a near miss still brings travel headaches, and with the storm still several days out, forecasters remain wary of any last-minute westward wobbles that could bring the snow shield back into the metropolitan centers.
A father was killed in an avalanche Wednesday afternoon in the Snake Creek area of Utah's Wasatch Mountain range, the Wasatch County Sheriff's Office said Thursday.
The man was snowmobiling with his juvenile son when he was hit by the slide.
This happened just a day after the avalanche that killed at least 8 skiers in the Donner Pass region of the California Sierra — the deadliest US avalanche since 1981.
Avalanche Warnings are in effect across parts of the West, which were in the midst a major snow-drought until the current stormy weather pattern arrived Sunday.
Long periods of snow-drought make existing snow more fragile, increasing the threat of avalanches when snow finally does arrive.
{{#rendered}}The Storm Prediction Center says the atmosphere is becoming more favorable for severe storms to fire up in parts of the Midwest this afternoon.
Right now, forecasters are monitoring an area stretching from near St. Louis, Missouri to Indianapolis, Indiana to Louisville, Kentucky for storms to erupt in the next hour or two.
A Tornado Watch is likely to be issued for these areas shortly.
Recovery efforts for the final missing skier at Castle Peak in California have slowed to a crawl as a fresh wave of Pacific moisture hammers the Sierra Nevada with heavy snow and whiteout conditions.
Rescuers are battling snow rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour and gale-force winds, which have further destabilized a snowpack that already saw over 5 feet of accumulation earlier this week.
While the bodies of the eight confirmed victims have been located, the horrific blizzard conditions and high avalanche risk have prevented their extraction, forcing teams to navigate a treacherous debris field that is being re-buried in real-time.
Avalanche Warnings persist for the region as search and rescue teams attempt to recover the victims and the final missing skier, who is presumed dead.
Tuesday's avalanche killed at least 8 skiers on Castle Peak in California's northern Sierra, the deadliest in the U.S. since 1981.
FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray has the latest conditions from nearby Stateline, Nevada.
{{#rendered}}While the calendar says February, the atmosphere across the Midwest is acting much more like April today.
Following yesterday's record-shattering warmth, a powerful cold front is slicing into that unusually humid air, setting the stage for a round of severe thunderstorms today.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Level 3 of 5 risk zone that stretches from eastern Missouri through central and southern Illinois, Indiana, and into western Kentucky and Ohio.
For residents in cities like St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Louisville, today is a day to keep the FOX Weather app handy, as the transition from spring-like sun to stormy skies will happen quickly.
The timing of today’s storms will unfold in a few distinct phases:
- FOX Weather meteorologists expect the first storms to fire up in eastern Missouri and western Illinois early this afternoon—likely between 1:00 p.m. and 3:00 p.m. local time. These initial storms have the highest potential to be supercells, which are discrete, rotating thunderstorms.
- As we move into the late afternoon and early evening (4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.), these individual storms are expected to merge into a more organized line that will march across Indiana and Kentucky. By midnight, most of the severe threat will have shifted into Ohio or fizzled out as the sun goes down and the atmosphere loses its fuel.
In terms of specific impacts, all modes of severe weather are on the table. Because of the strong winds aloft—known as shear—any storm that develops today will have the ability to rotate. This means tornadoes are a very real concern, particularly with those early afternoon supercells.
As the storms form a line later in the evening, the threat will shift toward damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph, which are strong enough to knock down tree limbs and cause power outages.
We’re also keeping an eye out for large hail. Once this front passes, the weather whiplash will be complete, as temperatures are expected to plummet back into the 30s and 40s by Friday morning.
The severe weather threat is intensifying this afternoon as an unseasonably warm air mass collides with a powerful storm system, prompting a Level 3 of 5 threat zone for parts of the Midwest.
FOX Forecast Center meteorologists are particularly concerned about a corridor spanning Southern Illinois and Southern Indiana, where the potential for strong tornadoes (EF-2 or greater) is increasing.
Cities like Bloomington, Terre Haute, and Vincennes are in the bullseye for rotating supercells, while a lower risk area Indianapolis, Louisville, and Cincinnati.
Beyond the tornado risk, these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph and large hail, making it critical for people to have multiple ways to receive warnings as this fast-moving system pushes through the Ohio Valley.
Hail fell across Union, Missouri Thursday morning as severe storms pushed east.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says strong EF-2+ tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening across southern portions of Illinois and Indiana.
{{#rendered}}The Rockies are getting set to receive another round of much-needed snow. Utah's Cottonwood Canyons conducted avalanche mitigation ahead of the next winter storm.
Long periods of snow-drought make existing snow more fragile, increasing the threat of avalanches when snow finally does arrive.
This most recent storm dropped more than 43 inches of snow across Utah, where the snowpack was sitting in dangerous record-low levels.
The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring northern Indiana for the threat of severe storms this morning, primarily driven by a hail threat.
Forecasters are currently monitoring a few thunderstorms that have triggered a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings this morning.
These storms may produce some damaging hail to the size of quarters over the next few hours.
Additional severe thunderstorms are predicted to develop across the Midwest later today.
{{#rendered}}Meteorologists in the FOX Forecast Center are standing by for the latest computer forecast model guidance ahead of this weekend's potential nor'easter.
The "12Z suite" of models are now processing, using current weather observations as a starting point to predict the future.
As that new data comes in, forecasters will be updating the weekend snow outlook for the Interstate 95 corridor in the Northeast through the afternoon.
While February severe weather often features brief "spin-ups," today’s setup across the Ohio Valley and Southern Indiana carries a more significant signature.
FOX Weather meteorologists are warning of a Level 3/5 where extreme wind shear—the "atmospheric torque" created by a 115 mph jet streak—could support strong tornadoes (EF-2 or greater).
These intense, rotating supercells are most likely to fire up between 2:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. local time, particularly in the corridor from Vincennes to Bloomington, Indiana.
The primary concern is that the sheer force of the wind shear is powerful enough to compensate for the modest winter instability, allowing any developing storm to rotate rapidly.
Unlike a solid line of storms, these discrete supercells have the space to tap into the high-octane low-level jet, increasing the threat of a long-track, significant tornado.
If you are in the path, now is the time to ensure your FOX Weather alerts are on and your safe room is ready, as these storms will be moving at high speeds and packing a spring-sized punch.
The weather world is currently split down the middle as the two heavyweight global models—the American GFS and the European ECMWF—go head-to-head over this Sunday’s nor'easter.
While both agree a powerful coastal low will develop, they are miles apart on the "where" and "how much."
The GFS (American) has been the snowier outlier, consistently trending toward a track closer to the coast that would dump heavy, accumulating snow across Philly, NYC, and Boston.
In the other corner, the ECMWF (European) has been leaning toward a "fish storm" or a much further offshore solution. In this scenario, the storm intensifies beautifully for the Atlantic, but the I-95 corridor is left with nothing more than a biting wind and a few stray flurries.
FOX Weather meteorologists call this a low-confidence setup because the energy for this storm is still over the Pacific; until it hits the West Coast on Friday, the models are essentially guessing how it will interact with the jet stream.
If the Euro shifts just 50 miles west in the next 24 hours, millions of people will be waking up to a much whiter Monday morning commute than what some forecast guidance indicates.
{{#rendered}}The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring dew point temperatures this morning across the Midwest as moisture surges northward ahead of today's severe storm threat.
Higher dew points indicate more moisture, which will fuel the threat for severe thunderstorms across the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys this afternoon and evening.
The Sierra Nevada is under a relentless assault this morning as the next wave of a powerful winter storm cycle reloads over the mountains.
Following a week that has already seen over 5 feet of snow in some areas, the FOX Forecast Center says this new storm will dump another 1 to 3 feet on the mountains.
With snow rates hitting 1 to 2 inches per hour, travel across I-80 and Highway 50 has become a treacherous gamble, and several secondary highways remain closed due to the sheer volume of accumulation.
This incoming weather is creating a horrific environment for recovery teams at Castle Peak. After the deadliest avalanche in California’s modern history claimed eight lives on Tuesday, crews are racing against this new blanket of snow to locate the final missing skier.
The Sierra Avalanche Center has extended a backcountry Avalanche Warning, as the new snow is being piled onto a "persistent weak layer" by gale-force winds gusting up to 50–70 mph.
This combination of new weight and high-velocity wind transport is essentially "loading the gun," making natural and human-triggered slides a near-certainty in the backcountry.
For those in the Lake Tahoe basin, the weather whiplash is in full effect. While a brief period of dry conditions is forecast for Friday through Sunday, today is a whiteout battle.
Visibility has frequently dropped below a quarter-mile, and blowing snow is creating deep drifts that are erasing plowed roads in minutes.
Officials are urging everyone to stay out of the backcountry and off the roads if possible, as the Sierra remains in the grip of one of the most intense and tragic storm cycles in recent memory.
When it comes to severe weather in February, we usually lack the sweltering heat and humidity that fuels summer outbreaks. However, today’s setup across the Midwest and Ohio Valley proves that you don't always need massive heat to get big storms—sometimes, you just need a lot of "twist."
The FOX Forecast Center is focused on the severe storm threat for cities like Indianapolis, Louisville, and Cincinnati, and the real story isn't the temperature; it’s the wind shear. Think of wind shear as the atmospheric torque that gets a storm spinning.
Today, we have a classic high-shear, low-CAPE (instability) environment. While the energy at the surface is modest, a powerful 115 mph jet streak is screaming overhead. This creates a massive difference in wind speed and direction between the ground and the upper atmosphere.
In the lower levels, a 40-50 knot low-level jet is pumping in moisture, while winds just a few thousand feet up are much faster and coming from a different angle.
This turning of the wind with height—visualized by meteorologists as a curved hodograph—creates invisible horizontal rolling tubes of air.
When a developing thunderstorm updraft sucks one of those tubes upward, the entire storm begins to rotate, turning it into a supercell.
These rotating supercells are the primary concern for tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Even with limited sun and cloud cover, the sheer force of the wind shear is so strong that it can compensate for the lower instability, stretching any rotation toward the ground.
Forecasters expect the most discrete, rotating storms to fire up near the St. Louis area and move into central Indiana between 2 p.m. and 6 p.m. local time. As the evening progresses, these individual spin-wheels will likely merge into a solid line, shifting the threat from tornadoes to damaging straight-line winds of up to 60 mph.
The weather whiplash will be felt by millions today, as this intense shear-driven system proves that February can pack a spring-sized punch.
{{#rendered}}As the sun rises over the Sierra Nevada today, the mission at Castle Peak has transitioned into a somber, high-stakes recovery operation.
After a Tuesday afternoon avalanche claimed the lives of eight backcountry skiers—the deadliest single slide in California's recorded history—specialized teams are returning to the mountain to locate the one remaining missing person.
The search resumes under the shadow of horrific conditions that have hampered crews since the initial 11:30 a.m. PT 911 call on Tuesday.
While searchers were able to locate eight of the victims on Wednesday, the bodies remain on the mountain; extreme winds, whiteout conditions, and the persistent threat of secondary slides made it too dangerous to extract them.
Today, roughly 50 rescue personnel from the Nevada County Sheriff’s Office and specialized nordic teams are utilizing a narrow weather window to reach the debris field once more. They are racing against an incoming burst of snow forecast for later today, which could drop another foot of powder on an already unstable 6-to-8-foot snowpack.
This disaster has sent shockwaves through the Lake Tahoe community, particularly within the Sugar Bowl Academy and the close-knit backcountry circles of Donner Summit. Of the 15-person party led by Blackbird Mountain Guides, six survived (five clients and one guide), but the loss of life is historic.
Authorities have noted that the victims—seven women and two men—were caught in a "football-field-sized" crush of snow that proved impossible to outrun.
As crews probe the deep, unbonded layers of snow today, the primary goal remains bringing everyone home to provide closure to families who have been reeling since the tragedy began.
As we move toward the weekend, the forecast for the brewing nor’easter is becoming a classic battle of atmospheric "ifs." For the millions living along the I-95 corridor—from D.C. to Boston—the difference between a historic snowstorm and a cold, rainy miss will come down to two critical factors: the strength of the coastal low and its precise track relative to the coastline.
The Golden Rule for a major I-95 snow event is the track of the low-pressure center. Meteorologists often look for the low to pass near the 70W/40N benchmark—a sweet spot off the coast of New England.
If the storm tracks too far inland (west), it pulls in relatively warm air from the Atlantic, turning potential snow into a rain or slop event for the big cities.
If it tracks too far offshore (east), the heaviest comma head of moisture spinning around the low misses the coast entirely, leaving the corridor with nothing more than a few flurries and a biting wind.
The FOX Forecast Center says current model guidance is hovering on that razor-thin line, meaning a wobble of just 50 miles in the storm’s center could be the difference between 2 inches and 12 inches of snow in New York or Philly.
The strength and speed of the low are equally vital. It's likely that the storm will undergo explosive cyclogenesis, becoming a bomb cyclone, where the central pressure drops rapidly.
A stronger, deeper storm generates its own cold air through a process called dynamic cooling, which can force the rain-snow line further toward the ocean even when surface temperatures are marginally warm.
Additionally, a stronger storm creates a tighter pressure gradient, which is what fuels those 50+ mph gusts and the significant coastal flooding risk.
If the storm intensifies quickly while it is parallel to the Mid-Atlantic, we could see snow bands develop—heavy pockets of snow falling at 1–2 inches per hour—that can overwhelm road crews in minutes.
New crucial model data will be arriving today, which will help nail down the track of the storm and the overall impacts for millions along the East Coast.
Winter is refusing to take a backseat as a powerful nor’easter begins to brew off the East Coast, putting millions of residents from the Mid-Atlantic to New England on high alert.
The FOX Forecast Center is closely watching a complex dance of atmospheric energy as a low-pressure system is forecast to develop late Friday and rapidly intensify as it tracks north. While the exact path is still being fine-tuned, the potential for a bomb cyclone—a storm that strengthens so fast its central pressure drops like a rock—is keeping emergency crews on standby across the I-95 corridor.
The biggest question for your weekend plans is the track. If the storm hugs the coast, we’re looking at a classic snowy blitz for cities like D.C., Philadelphia, New York, and Boston starting late Sunday into Monday. We’re talking about that heavy, wet "heart attack" snow that’s tough to shovel and even tougher on power lines.
However, even if the heaviest snow stays offshore, the sheer size of this system means millions will still feel the bite of gale-force winds and significant coastal flooding. With high astronomical tides already in place, low-lying communities should prepare for minor to moderate inundation that could turn seaside streets into rivers during Sunday’s high tide cycles.
Whether you're looking at several inches of plowable snow or just a raw, wind-whipped rain, the impacts on travel will be significant. Airline operations centers are already eyeing Sunday evening for potential delays, and road conditions across the Northeast could turn slick and treacherous just in time for the Monday morning commute.
Now is the time to secure your outdoor gear, check the salt supply, and keep a close eye on the FOX Weather forecast. This storm has all the ingredients of a major weekend disruptor, so it's best to have your Plan B ready.
{{#rendered}}Don't miss out on important updates from Wednesday: go back and see LIVE updates from our coverage.
Click here to see the minute-by-minute updates from FOX Weather.
- Brewing nor’easter: Meteorologists are tracking a major coastal storm potential for Sunday and Monday. The system could "bomb out" along the East Coast, bringing a significant rain-to-snow transition and gale-force winds to the I-95 corridor.
- California avalanche search: The search continues for the one final missing skier at Castle Peak following Tuesday’s catastrophic slide. Recovery teams have confirmed eight fatalities, making this the deadliest avalanche in modern Sierra Nevada history.
- Severe storm threat: A Level 2/5 risk for severe weather is in effect for the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Primary threats include damaging winds up to 65 mph and tornadoes from St. Louis through Indianapolis and Louisville this afternoon.
- Active fire alerts: Critical fire weather remains a concern for the Southern Plains. Fire Weather Warnings are in effect due to 45 mph gusts and record-breaking warmth in the 70s/80s.
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