Live updates: CSU to release 2026 hurricane outlook as Super El Niño threatens to upend the season
Colorado State University is set to release its highly anticipated 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook today, as forecasters monitor a rapidly developing Super El Niño that could significantly impact storm activity. FOX Weather has live updates, expert analysis from the National Tropical Weather Conference, and a deep dive into the numbers that will define this year's tropical season.
Colorado State University (CSU) will release its first outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at 10 a.m. ET.
The tropical weather community has officially converged on South Padre Island, Texas, for the National Tropical Weather Conference, and all eyes are on the clock.
Colorado State University (CSU) will release its first formal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at 10 a.m. ET—a forecast that serves as the definitive roadmap for the months ahead.
This year’s outlook is particularly high-stakes as experts weigh a brewing Super El Niño—which typically acts as a shield against Atlantic storms—against warming ocean temperatures that could provide rocket fuel for any system that develops.
FOX Weather is live on the ground with complete coverage throughout the day. Following the release, FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross will provide exclusive analysis, breaking down what the projected storm counts actually mean for your backyard.
Norcross will also sit down with Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the lead author of the CSU outlook, to discuss the specific atmospheric drivers—from the Saharan Air Layer to the looming Pacific warming—that are expected to define the 2026 season.
Don't miss a beat: Stick with our live blog for the official numbers, the full list of 2026 storm names, and immediate reaction from America’s Weather Team.
It is official: La Niña has left the building. In its latest monthly update issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued its Final La Niña Advisory, declaring that the pattern has officially dissipated.
For the first time in months, the tropical Pacific has transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions, which are favored to remain in place through the early summer.
ENSO-neutral conditions emerged, as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean
However, this "neutral" phase appears to be a brief pit stop. NOAA has simultaneously issued an El Niño Watch, noting a 61% chance that El Niño will emerge as early as the May-July period and persist through the end of the year.
Key takeaways from the April update:
Neutral is here: Sea surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific have returned to near-average levels.
The Heat is rising: Subsurface ocean temperatures have increased for five consecutive months, providing the necessary fuel for an upcoming El Niño.
The El Niño threat: While a transition is likely, there is a wide range of possibilities for its strength—including a 1-in-4 chance of a "very strong" El Niño by next winter.
This transition is a major piece of the puzzle for the 2026 hurricane season, as the shift from La Niña to El Niño typically brings increased wind shear that can help suppress tropical development in the Atlantic.
If you’ve noticed that early hurricane outlooks often come with a heavy dose of caution, it isn't just meteorologists being non-committal. It is actually due to a phenomenon known as the "Spring Predictability Barrier."
This "barrier" refers to a specific window between March and May when global climate models struggle to predict the future state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Because the transition between El Niño and La Niña typically happens during the northern hemisphere spring, the ocean and atmosphere are in a state of flux, making long-range data more unreliable.
Current long-range El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast
This barrier plays havoc on hurricane forecasting; a late-developing El Niño can sheer storms apart, while a La Niña can charge the season.
Once we move into June and July, ocean temperatures in the Pacific stabilize and provide forecasters with the clarity needed to issue more confident forecasts.
Current data for the 2026 season is very bullish on El Niño conditions, but until we clear this spring window, those predictions may change.
The Colorado State University (CSU) seasonal hurricane forecast is currently in its 43rd year, standing as one of the most respected institutions in tropical meteorology.
The project was pioneered by the late Dr. William Gray, who served as the lead author for over two decades and remained a co-author until his passing in 2016.
Dr. Gray was a visionary in the field, conducting groundbreaking research on hurricane structure, genesis, and cumulus convection that laid the foundation for modern seasonal prediction.
Today, the research legacy continues under the leadership of Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and a dedicated team of scientists who continue to refine the models Gray first developed.
The project has benefited immensely from former project members such as Chris Landsea, John Knaff, and Eric Blake, as well as ongoing support from various insurance and meteorological sponsors.
As we wait for Colorado State University's numbers to drop at 10:00 a.m. ET, the question on everyone’s mind at the National Tropical Weather Conference is: Which climate giant will win the tug-of-war in 2026?
Predicting a hurricane season months in advance is a complex puzzle. Here is a breakdown of the primary ingredients Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the CSU team are likely weighing in today’s outlook.
The 'Super El Niño' wildcard
The biggest story of the 2026 season is the rapid transition in the Pacific. La Niña is waning rapidly, and a powerful "Super El Niño" is currently brewing.
- The effect: El Niño typically acts as a hurricane killer for the Atlantic. It creates strong vertical wind shear—fast-moving winds in the upper atmosphere that can tilt or shred a developing tropical system before it can organize.
- The uncertainty: The timing is everything. If El Niño reaches "Super" status by August, it could create an invisible shield over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
Atlantic 'rocket fuel' (ocean temperatures)
Counteracting wind shear is the literal heat under our feet. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico are hovering above average right now.
- The effect: Warm water is the fuel for hurricanes. Even in high-shear years, exceptionally warm oceans can allow storms to overcome atmospheric obstacles and undergo rapid intensification.
- The conflict: CSU must decide if the suppressive winds of El Niño are strong enough to cancel out the explosive potential of these warm waters.
The West African Monsoon & Saharan dust
We also look to the east. The strength of the African Easterly Waves—the seeds of about 85% of major hurricanes—depends on the West African Monsoon.
A wetter-than-normal season in the Sahel region of Africa typically leads to more robust tropical waves, while early season Saharan Dust plumes can choke out storms by importing dry, stable air into the tropics. Forecasters are watching to see if a dominant high-pressure system will keep the Atlantic dusty through July.
Historical analogs
Forecasters don't just look at models; they look at history. The CSU team selects analog years—past seasons that featured similar setups (like a burgeoning El Niño following a multi-year La Niña).
Years to watch: Watch for Dr. Klotzbach to mention years like 1997 or 2015. These were years where powerful El Niños significantly suppressed storm counts, though they still produced notable impacts.
Today’s forecast isn't just a single number; it’s a probability. Whether CSU leans toward an "average" (14 named storms) or "below average" (11–12 named storms) season will largely depend on how much credit they give to El Niño’s ability to fight off the Atlantic’s warmth.
As we count down to the official start of the season on June 1, it’s time to familiarize ourselves with the 21 names that could soon be scrolling across the FOX Weather App. The 2026 Atlantic list begins with Arthur and ends with Wilfred.
If some of these names look familiar, it’s because they are! The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) maintains six rotating lists of names for the Atlantic basin. This means the 2026 list was last used in 2020 and will be used again in 2032.
2026 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane names
How the naming process works:
Why we name them: Names are used instead of coordinates or numbers because they are much easier for the public and emergency responders to remember and communicate during a crisis.
The criteria: To make the list, names must be short, easy to pronounce, and reflect the different cultures and languages (English, Spanish, and French) found around the Atlantic and Caribbean.
The "Skipped" letters: You won’t see a Hurricane "Quentin" or "Zachary." The letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z are skipped because there simply aren't enough easily recognizable names starting with those letters to sustain a six-year rotation.
Retirement: A name is only removed from the rotation if a storm is so deadly or costly that future use would be insensitive. For example, the name Melissa was recently retired following the 2025 season and has been replaced by Molly for future rotations.
What happens if we run out?
In the rare event that we have more than 21 named storms, we no longer use the Greek Alphabet (Alpha, Beta, etc.). Instead, the National Hurricane Center will pull from a supplemental list of names approved by the WMO.
While we wait for the official Colorado State University numbers to drop, you can catch up on all the action from the opening day of the National Tropical Weather Conference.
Our team spent Wednesday on the ground in South Padre Island, Texas, chatting with the world's leading hurricane experts about the volatile setup for the 2026 season. From the rapid intensification of the brewing "Super El Niño" to the debut of the National Hurricane Center’s redesigned forecast cone, yesterday’s sessions laid the groundwork for today’s big reveal.
Click here for a full recap of Day 1 at the National Tropical Weather Conference.
Live Coverage begins here