Live updates: Intense tornadoes, large hail threaten 132 million from Midwest to Northeast today
Severe storms are expected to sweep across the Midwest and Northeast today, bringing a dangerous threat of strong tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail to over 132 million people. Stay tuned for real-time radar images, emergency alerts, and the latest timing for cities in the path of these powerful storms.
A dangerous combination of record-breaking snowpack and relentless rain has pushed the Great Lakes region into a high-stakes flooding emergency.
The FOX Forecast Center warns that as heavy rain falls on frozen ground and rapidly melting snow, local rivers across Wisconsin and Michigan are expected to surge into major flood stage, with several locations forecast to shatter all-time record crests through Wednesday.
The atmospheric setup is fueled by a moisture pump off the Southeast coast that is funneling an endless stream of Gulf moisture directly into the Upper Midwest. This has created a perfect storm for flooding, particularly in cities like Marquette, Sault Ste. Marie, and Traverse City.
In Marquette, where a historic 273 inches of snow has fallen this season, the sudden transition to warmer temperatures is aggressively melting the snowpack. When combined with forecasted rain of 2 to 3 inches, the resulting runoff has nowhere to go but into already swollen waterways.
The impact on regional rivers is expected to be historic:
- Menominee River: Forecast to peak at 16.5 feet at Niagara and 20 feet near McAllister, both of which would surpass previous all-time records.
- Manistee River: Expected to crest at 17.8 feet near Sherman, Michigan, well above its 16.9-foot record.
Major flooding is expected on some Midwest rivers and streams as heavy rain hammers the region this week.
Flood Watches remain in effect across northern Michigan through Wednesday morning. However, the danger likely won't end then; with high soil saturation levels across the Plains and another round of rain expected later this week, officials warn that flash flooding risks could be prolonged well into the weekend.
Residents in these flood-prone areas should monitor river gauges closely and never attempt to drive through flooded roadways.
A dangerous situation is unfolding in Waupaca County, where the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Warning due to the imminent failure of the Big Falls Dam.
Law enforcement has reported that the dam is on the verge of breaching following several rounds of heavy thunderstorms that have dumped 2 to 5 inches of rain across the region.
A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for the Little Wolf River due to an imminent dam failure.
We're told a failure would trigger catastrophic flash flooding along the Little Wolf River, sending a wall of water downstream toward the village of Big Falls.
Residents in low-lying areas below the dam must move to higher ground immediately. The wall of water from a breach could arrive with little to no warning, turning local roads into impassable rivers and threatening structures in its path.
Emergency crews are on high alert, and officials are urging everyone in the impacted zone to avoid all travel as "Turn Around, Don't Drown" remains the rule of the morning.
(Suamico Fire Department/Facebook)
Firefighters in Suamico, Wisconsin, carried out a harrowing rescue on Tuesday morning as torrential rains caused floodwaters to inundate a local residence.
Crews arriving at the home on Stream Road found the basement completely submerged and water beginning to spill onto the first floor, trapping three people inside.
Firefighters were able to successfully evacuate all three occupants before the situation turned even more dire, securing the area as the region remains under a significant threat for more heavy rain and flash flooding throughout the day.
Latest power outage tracker for Wisconsin (PowerOutage.com)
Wisconsin utility crews have made significant progress this morning, cutting the number of outages in half as they race to restore power before a second, more powerful round of storms arrives.
While over 85,000 Wisconsin residents were in the dark at the peak of the overnight damage, that number is steadily falling as teams clear downed trees and repair lines snapped by last night's intense winds.
Low-level wind shear will increase this afternoon and evening, which will help fuel the development of supercell thunderstorms in the Midwest.
The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring a strengthening low-level jet that is expected to ramp up significantly by late Tuesday afternoon.
These intensifying winds, just a few thousand feet above the surface, will provide the crucial speed shear and directional shear necessary to tilt and rotate rising air columns.
This atmospheric twisting is the key ingredient that allows standard thunderstorms to organize into rotating supercells, significantly increasing the risk for both giant hail and tornadic activity as the storms tap into this increasing energy.
Today's severe weather threat has increased, with the chance of intense tornadoes likely in the Midwest. A chance of an EF-3 tornado is likely for parts of Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois.
Weather Command meteorologists Stephen Morgan and Marissa Torres break down the changing threat.
The Storm Prediction Center is concerned about the the threat for intense (EF-3+) tornadoes across parts of the Midwest later today.
The greatest potential for intense tornadoes today is concentrated along a corridor stretching across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin.
Forecasters are particularly concerned about a warm front where low-level wind shear is expected to maximize late this afternoon.
Any discrete supercell storms that can develop along this boundary will have the best chance of producing intense, long-track tornadoes (EF-3 or higher).
As the evening progresses, this threat will likely transition into a damaging wind event as storms congeal into a fast-moving line across the Great Lakes.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has significantly upped the ante this morning, expanding the Level 3 Enhanced Risk zone deeper into the Great Lakes region.
This expansion reflects growing confidence in a volatile atmospheric setup where record-breaking warmth and high dew points are pooling ahead of a strengthening surface low.
The Storm Prediction Center has just expanded the Level 3 of 5 severe weather threat zone for today.
The core threat area now more broadly encompasses eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southern Michigan, and western Oklahoma putting major population centers on high alert for an outbreak of intense supercells capable of producing intense tornadoes (EF-3 or stronger) and hail larger than 2 inches in diameter.
Forecasters noted that the shift of a warm front has opened the door for these dangerous storms to track further into the Great Lakes than initially anticipated.
This storm fuel is peaking just as wind shear increases this afternoon, creating a window for discrete, long-track storms before they likely congeal into a damaging wind threat after sunset.
If you are in the path of this expanded risk zone, now is the time to review your severe weather plan, as the ceiling for storm intensity has clearly been raised.
Forecast high temperatures for Tuesday across the eastern half of the United States.
Record-breaking spring warmth is acting as high-octane storm fuel for today’s severe weather, with temperatures soaring as much as 20 to 30 degrees above average across the Midwest.
This unseasonable heat is rapidly increasing atmospheric instability, or CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), creating a volatile environment where air can rise explosively into the upper atmosphere.
When this intense surface heat clashes with an approaching cold front and a powerful jet stream, it provides the raw energy needed to sustain long-track supercells and high-intensity tornadoes.
More than 50,000 customers across Southeast Wisconsin are starting their Tuesday in the dark after powerful overnight storms tore through the region.
According to We Energies, the hardest-hit areas include Milwaukee and Waukesha counties, where intense winds and storm rotation downed trees and snapped power lines. Utility crews are working to restore service as quickly as possible, but with another significant round of severe weather forecast for this afternoon, officials are warning that additional outages are likely.
Latest power outage tracker showing significant outages in Wisconsin. (PowerOutage.com)
The severe weather threat is reaching a fever pitch today as the FOX Forecast Center warns of a massive storm system spanning over 1,500 miles and impacting more than 15 states.
A dangerous Level 3 out of 5 risk is centered over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin, where the atmosphere is primed for an outbreak of powerful supercells.
Severe thunderstorms are expected to erupt across 15 states from the Midwest to the Northeast with tornadoes, damaging hail, and dangerous winds.
With dew points climbing into the 60s and intense daytime heating providing ample storm fuel, residents in major hubs like Chicago, Des Moines, and Milwaukee should prepare for a volatile afternoon and evening.
The first wave of activity is expected to ignite around 3:00 p.m. CT along a warm front draped across the Midwest. While the initial threat focuses on destructive hail measuring 2 to 3 inches in diameter, the danger will shift as sunset approaches.
Strengthening winds aloft are expected to increase low-level spin, significantly raising the potential for strong, long-track tornadoes (EF-2 or higher). This risk is particularly high for any discrete storm cells that can remain south of the front, though a transition into a fast-moving line of damaging wind remains a threat through the overnight hours.
The reach of this system extends far beyond the Midwest, stretching from the southern Plains all the way to the Northeast:
- Southern Plains: Intense heating along the dryline will likely trigger supercells across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas by mid-afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing massive hail up to 3 inches and isolated tornadoes.
- The Northeast: A separate round of thunderstorms will race across Pennsylvania, upstate New York, and New England. The primary concern here is damaging wind gusts reaching 60 mph, which could impact the I-95 corridor and cities like Syracuse late this evening.
- Looking ahead: The active pattern won't break tonight, as a few more severe storms are forecast to redevelop across the Plains on Wednesday.
Storms have triggered significant flight delays at Chicago's Midway and O'Hare airports this morning.
Travelers at O'Hare and Midway international airports are facing a grueling start to the morning as a line of powerful storms tracking through Chicagoland has triggered ground stops and extensive ground delay programs.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued the halts as lightning and downpours moved over the terminals, leading to a cascade of cancellations and soaring departure delays that are expected to ripple through the flight schedule all day.
If you are heading to either airport, officials are urging you to check your flight status before leaving home while the region remains under the gun for severe weather.
Severe weather storm reports from Monday, April 13.
Monday night’s severe weather served as a violent opening act for the multi-day storm threat currently gripping the central U.S.
A total of at least 14 preliminary tornado reports were logged across four states, with the most significant damage occurring in Ottawa, Kansas, where homes were battered, power poles were snapped, and thousands were left without electricity.
The storms developed as powerful supercells along a warm front, dropping tennis-ball-sized hail in parts of Minnesota and confirmed tornadoes in rural areas of northwestern Iowa and southern Wisconsin.
The damage was widespread as the system tracked northeast through the overnight hours, impacting communities from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest.
A tornado injured 2 people and destroyed homes and businesses after ripping through part of Hillsdale, Kansas.
National Weather Service survey teams are deploying this morning to assess the intensity of the damage and confirm tornado ratings.
These initial storms have primed the atmosphere for today’s even larger threat, leaving many residents across the Midwest on high alert for a second consecutive round of dangerous weather.
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