- Hazardous holiday weekend: A powerful storm system will sweep across the South and Southeast, threatening to disrupt Valentine’s Day dates and Mardi Gras celebrations through Sunday.
- Severe storm risk: Forecasters are tracking the threat of damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and a few tornadoes as a cold front collides with warm, muggy Gulf air.
- Flash flood threat: Heavy rain totals of 1–4 inches are expected from Texas to the Carolinas, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible in areas seeing training thunderstorms.
- Major cities impacted: High-population hubs including Dallas, Little Rock, Atlanta, and Mobile are under the gun for heavy rain and potential flight delays starting tonight.
- Mardi Gras disruptions: In South Louisiana and Alabama, the heaviest rain is timed for late Saturday into Sunday, potentially impacting outdoor parades and Joe Cain Day festivities.
As a powerful cross-country storm sweeps through the Southern U.S., the FOX Forecast Center is tracking an increased risk for severe weather—including the potential for tornadoes—this Valentine's Day.
While much of the weekend focus has been on drenching rain and flooding, meteorologists warn that a "sneaky" setup is emerging as intense wind shear overlaps with a surge of humid Gulf air.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a corridor of concern stretching across the Deep South. According to the latest tornado outlook, a focused area of concern (Level 2) includes Houston, Lake Charles, Lufkin, and Alexandria, extending toward Baton Rouge.
FOX Weather meteorologist say in winter severe weather setups, you don't always need massive amounts of heat to trigger a tornado. Instead, a powerful low-level jet and strong wind shear—the change in wind speed and direction with height—become the dominant forces.
Forecasters are specifically watching for quick spin-up tornadoes that can form rapidly within a squall line or in isolated storms that develop ahead of the main front on Saturday afternoon and evening.
This timing is particularly critical for millions of Americans with Valentine's Day dinner plans or those attending Mardi Gras festivities in Louisiana and Texas. Residents in cities like Lafayette and Baton Rouge should remain weather-aware, as storms could disrupt outdoor events well into the night.
For those hoping to spend Valentine’s Day weekend shoveling out of a winter wonderland, the latest data from the FOX Forecast Center has a clear message: Don't hold your breath.
While early week computer models teased a potential boom scenario for the I-95 corridor, the snow chances for New York City, Philadelphia, and Boston have all but evaporated for this Sunday and Monday.
The latest snow forecast from FOX Weather shows nothing more than flurries or a light coating at most for areas along Interstate 95 in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Instead of a deep trough pulling the 1,000-mile-wide storm northward along the coast, the low-pressure system is sliding much farther south than initially teased.
Without a significant dip in the jet stream to steer it toward New England, the bulk of the moisture will stay locked over the Deep South and Southeast.
Furthermore, the arctic air that gripped the region earlier this month has been replaced by a robust thaw. Temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to moderate into the 40s and low 50s this weekend.
Even if the storm system does manage to scrape the region, the atmosphere will be far too warm to support anything other than plain rain for the majority of the Atlantic corridor.
While FOX Weather is tracking the system's every move, current ensemble modeling shows that the colder, snowy solutions have become extreme outliers, too.
Out of 150 different model members analyzed, over 100 now show little to no impactful snow for the major Northeast hubs.
{{#rendered}}The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the severe weather threat for Saturday to a Level 2 out of 5 for parts of the Ark-La-Tex region.
This escalation indicates that scattered severe thunderstorms are now expected to be more organized and numerous than previously forecast.
Some of those storms could even produce tornadoes. While not a classic major outbreak scenario, there is the potential for a few tornadoes, particularly along the middle Texas Coast and into Southwest Louisiana, if individual storms can form ahead of the main line.
For those with Valentine's Day plans, this Level 2 threat means you need to be extra weather-aware. The risk will begin in East Texas and the Ark-La-Tex region by late Saturday afternoon before shifting into Mississippi and Alabama during the overnight hours.
Because this system is tapping into such high moisture levels, any storm that develops will be an efficient rain-producer, increasing the risk for localized flash flooding alongside the severe wind threat.
Radar shows the very beginnings of the South's massive storm: rain is falling in the Desert Southwest now. As the storm system revs up later today, thunderstorms will ignite across Texas and Oklahoma.
The FOX Forecast Center is closely monitoring a volatile atmosphere over Oklahoma City as unseasonably warm air and surging Gulf moisture set the stage for a round of strong to severe storms tonight.
While the day is off to a tranquil start meteorologists warn that thunderstorm development is expected to ignite by late afternoon and early evening as a potent trough approaches the region.
The threat for more organized severe storm will peak this evening. High-resolution models suggest that supercells may develop, which are capable of producing large hail up to the size of golf balls and localized damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. While the tornado threat isn't high, a quick spin-up twister cannot be ruled out.
Overnight, the storms are expected to become more widespread, with the primary risk shifting toward locally heavy rain that could lead to minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas along the I-44 corridor.
Residents should ensure they have multiple ways to receive warnings, as these winter-time severe setups can be "sneaky" and evolve rapidly after sunset.
Stay tuned to the FOX Weather app for live radar and real-time alerts as these storms track through the Southern Plains.
{{#rendered}}New this morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has adjusted its Saturday forecast to include a threat of tornadoes across the Deep South.
While this weekend's storm is largely being viewed as a flood and wind producer, meteorologists are eyeing a "sneaky" setup that often characterizes Southern severe weather in the winter: high-energy wind profiles compensating for low atmospheric fuel.
The 'low-CAPE, high-shear' recipe: In typical spring outbreaks, we look for high instability (CAPE). However, in winter setups, the wind shear—the change in wind speed and direction with height—becomes the dominant driver. On Saturday, a strengthening low-level jet (a narrow ribbon of fast-moving air just above the surface) will overlap with a deepening surface cyclone moving out of East Texas.
The tornado hook: While near-surface lapse rates (how quickly air cools as you go up) remain weak—which usually limits tornado formation—the low-level hodographs (mathematical maps of wind shear) are becoming increasingly "curved." This curvature is a signal that any storm that develops could easily tap into that rotation.
Spin-up potential: Rather than long-track monsters, this setup favors quick, spin-up tornadoes embedded within the leading edge of a squall line. These can be particularly dangerous because they develop rapidly with very little lead time on radar.
Right now, the FOX Forecast Center is closely monitoring for an upgrade in the overall severe storm threat. The current forecast focuses the highest concern on Southeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley (including cities like Houston, Beaumont, and Lake Charles) late Saturday into Saturday night. As the surface low deepens and moves into Louisiana, we may see a categorical upgrade in the risk level (Level 1 to Level 2).
When the wind shear is this potent, it only takes a small pocket of sun or a minor surge in moisture to turn a damaging-wind event into a tornado event.
The FOX Forecast Center is currently awaiting the latest suite of high-resolution computer model runs—including the HRRR, GFS, and ECMWF—to fine-tune the timing and severity forecast of this weekend's storm threat.
These models ingest millions of data points from satellites, radar, and ground stations to mathematically simulate how the atmosphere will behave over the next 48 to 72 hours.
Forecasters are paying close attention to any shifts in the storm’s track or intensity, as even minor changes in moisture levels or wind speed can significantly alter the risk for tornadoes and flash flooding across the South.
Stay tuned for new information throughout the day as FOX Weather meteorologists assess the data and update the forecast.
{{#rendered}}A series of potent storm cells is tracking across South Louisiana this Sunday morning, potentially bringing rain-slicked streets and delays to early Mardi Gras festivities.
The latest Exclusive FOX Weather Model shows a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms pushing through the heart of the region, including New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and Houma, as of 8:00 a.m. CT.
While the morning is starting off soggy, there is good news for revelers planning to catch afternoon and evening parades. Most of the heavy precipitation is expected to push east of the I-10 corridor by early to mid-afternoon.
But even as the rain tapers off, a second "invisible threat" will remain: strong winds. A steady breeze of 15–25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph is forecast for Sunday afternoon. These gusty conditions could significantly affect Mardi Gras "throws," potentially blowing beads and trinkets back into the parade route or over the heads of the crowd.
The FAA has extended the ground stop for Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW) in Fort Myers, Florida as a stubborn blanket of dense fog continues to choke visibility across the airfield.
Originally slated to lift earlier this morning, the order has been pushed back to at least noon ET as "pea soup" fog currently stalls operations.
With the ground stop in place, all inbound flights from nearby airports are being held at their points of origin. Even after the ground stop is lifted, travelers can expect residual arrival delays as air traffic controllers work through a long queue of delayed planes.
And because many departing flights rely on incoming aircraft to arrive, passengers waiting at RSW are now seeing gate holds and taxi delays climb.
While a massive storm system prepares to drench the South, a different kind of weather headline is dominating the Central and Eastern U.S. this weekend: unseasonable, "blowtorch" warmth.
More than 275 million Americans are expected to see above-average temperatures through Sunday, with the most extreme departures from normal hitting the Great Plains and the Midwest.
In a month typically known for arctic blasts, February 2026 is delivering a weather rollercoaster. The FOX Forecast Center expects high temperatures to reach into the 60s and 70s as far north as North Dakota this afternoon—some 30 degrees above average for mid-February.
On Sunday alone, more than 200 million Americans will feel this surge of mild air as winter is temporarily kicked off the map.
This blowtorch effect is being driven by a powerful ridge of high pressure and a surge of warm air ahead of the incoming Southern storm. Places like Texas, Nebraska, and Kansas are seeing highs approaching 80°F.
{{#rendered}}Millions of Americans across the South are bracing for a soggy holiday weekend as a massive, 1,000-mile-wide storm system threatens to turn Valentine's Day into a total washout. The potent system is forecast to bring widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms from Texas and Oklahoma eastward through the Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas from Friday through Sunday.
The Exclusive FOX Weather Model shows a volatile Friday night ahead as a potent storm system begins to take shape over the Southern Plains.
While the day starts with unseasonably warm, "blowtorch" temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the atmosphere is primed to flip as a shortwave trough moves in from the west.
The latest model guidance suggests that the first isolated to scattered storms will begin to fire up across Far West Texas and Western Oklahoma between 5:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. CT.
As the evening progresses, this activity will expand in coverage and intensity. Between 7 and 11 p.m. CT, a broken line of strong storms is expected to develop, stretching from the Texas Panhandle down through Midland and Sweetwater. These storms will track east-northeast, fueled by an increasing low-level jet.
Overnight, the storm threat shifts toward North Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. While the severe risk will begin to wane slightly after midnight, widespread heavy rain and frequent lightning will continue to impact the I-35 corridor, including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and Oklahoma City.
The FOX Forecast Center is closely watching this "opening act" of the weekend storm for two main hazards: large hail & damaging winds. Atmospheric profiles favor organized updrafts, meaning any discrete cells that form tonight could produce hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph.
And with heavy rain to develop tonight, downpours could lead to ponding on roads and localized street flooding, particularly in Northeast Oklahoma where rain will be most persistent.
This tonight's activity is just the precursor to a much larger severe weather and flash flood threat expected to expand across the Deep South on Saturday.
NASCAR fans heading to the World Center of Racing are keeping a nervous eye on the sky as the 68th running of the Daytona 500 faces a growing threat from the same storm system set to drench the South.
While Friday and Saturday’s preliminary events—including the Truck Series and O'Reilly Auto Parts Series openers—should see mostly dry conditions with just a slight chance of a stray shower, the forecast for Sunday’s main event is becoming increasingly worrisome.
The FOX Forecast Center is tracking intermittent afternoon showers and thunderstorms that could move over the 2.5-mile superspeedway right as the green flag is scheduled to fly at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Rain chances increase as the day progresses, with computer model guidance suggesting a "race within a race" as drivers try to reach the official halfway mark before the heaviest rain arrives.
The current FOX Weather Risk Of Weather Impact (ROWI) is "low" for race time, meaning few impacts are expected.
Because NASCAR cannot race on a wet track at 200 mph, even a brief downpour can trigger a lengthy delay for track-drying efforts, which typically take 90 minutes at Daytona.
If the rain persists into the evening, fans may see a repeat of recent history; four of the last six Daytona 500s have been impacted by weather, with several resulting in Monday finishes.
{{#rendered}}The Florida Forest Service (FFS) is reporting a dangerous start to the 2026 fire season, with more than 650 wildfires recorded across the state since January 1.
These blazes have already consumed approximately 21,000 acres, fueled by a persistent "extreme drought" that has left vegetation across the peninsula bone-dry and ready to ignite.
In response to the escalating danger, 34 counties have now enacted emergency burn bans to prevent further human-caused ignitions. Under these active bans, residents are strictly prohibited from starting campfires, bonfires, or fire pits, as well as burning yard waste or trash.
These measures are designed to reduce the strain on firefighting resources already battling active blazes like the 3,500-acre Buggy Fire in Broward County.
It is important to note that while recreational and residential fires are restricted, these bans typically do not include authorized outdoor burning—such as prescribed fires managed by the Florida Forest Service or permitted agricultural burns.
For weeks, winter weather enthusiasts in New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. have been eyeing Valentine’s Day weekend as a potential "big one." However, as the storm finally arrives, the FOX Forecast Center is tracking a much drier, milder reality for the I-95 corridor.
While a major storm is indeed poised to cross the country, it is set to have little impact on the major Northeast metros.
Earlier this week, several long-range computer models (including the European and GFS) teased a blockbuster scenario where a deep trough would pull the storm north, hugging the coast as a classic Nor’easter. Instead, we are seeing a suppressed storm track.
The jet stream energy responsible for steering the storm isn't dipping as far south as initially predicted. This means the center of the low-pressure system is sliding across the Deep South and exiting the coast near the Carolinas, rather than turning the corner toward New Jersey.
Because the storm is tracking so far south, the I-95 corridor won't see much of anything at all. There will be a sharp cutoff on the northern side of the storm where the rain will suddenly end.
And temperatures in NYC and D.C. are expected to reach the mid-to-upper 40s on Sunday and Monday, making snow an atmospheric impossibility.
So why did the computer forecast models struggle so much with this one? This weekend’s setup was a victim of low-latitude complexity. When storms develop in the Southern Plains, global models often struggle to predict how they will interact with the northern branch of the jet stream.
And a massive ridge of high pressure over Canada is acting as a shield, physically pushing the storm further south than the models anticipated five days ago.
For a major Northeast snowstorm, two pieces of energy usually have to phase or merge. In this case, the timing was off—the southern energy moved too fast, leaving the northern cold air behind.
Beyond the complex physics of the storm itself, meteorologists in the FOX Forecast Center are pointing to a critical lack of atmospheric data as a primary culprit for the recent model madness.
High-resolution weather models rely on a steady diet of real-time measurements to initialize their simulations, but a growing data gap in the upper atmosphere is making those starting points increasingly fuzzy.
Across the country, several National Weather Service (NWS) offices have been forced to suspend or scale back their daily weather balloon launches due to significant staffing shortages and logistical hurdles.
Weather balloons—which carry a suite of sensors called a radiosonde—are the only tools capable of providing a vertical slice of temperature, humidity, and wind data from the ground all the way up to the stratosphere. When offices in key upstream regions like Omaha, Nebraska, or Rapid City, South Dakota, miss these launches, the computer models are forced to guess or use satellite estimates for the current state of the jet stream.
In meteorology, it's called the "garbage in, garbage out" problem: if the initial data is sparse, the 3-to-5-day forecast becomes a game of telephone where small errors in the beginning balloon into massive misses by the time the storm reaches the East Coast.
Millions of Americans at risk for flash flooding through Sunday as a powerful storm slams the South. The FOX Forecast Center is tracking a atmospheric firehose of subtropical moisture surging north from the Gulf of America, which will collide with a slow-moving cold front to create a widespread, multi-day rain event.
While much of the South has been grappling with abnormally dry conditions recently, the sheer intensity of the expected rain—up to 1 to 2 inches per hour in the strongest storms—will likely overwhelm drainage systems and cause rapid rises on small creeks and urban streets.
Right now, the highest risk for flooding is centered where the storm's forward progress slows down, allowing heavy rain bands to train or repeat over the same communities. The heaviest totals are currently forecast for a corridor stretching from Kansas and Missouri to Arkansas and Mississippi.
This flooding threat is particularly poorly timed for the weekend's festivities. In New Orleans and Mobile, the heaviest rain is expected to align with major Mardi Gras parades on Saturday night and Sunday.
As always, travelers are urged to never drive through flooded roadways—"Turn Around, Don't Drown" —especially at night when it is nearly impossible to judge the depth of water covering the road.
Be sure to have the FOX Weather app set to your current location to receive life-saving Flash Flood Warnings the moment they are issued.
{{#rendered}}The FAA has just implemented a ground stop at Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW) in Fort Myers, Florida as dense morning fog has essentially shuttered visibility on the runways.
Under this order, all flights destined for RSW from nearby airports are being held at their departure airports until conditions improve. Local weather observations show visibility has dropped to near-zero with "vertical visibility"—or how high a pilot can see straight up—limited to just 200–300 feet.
This "pea soup" fog is part of the same moisture surge causing delays at Miami International (MIA) and across the I-10 corridor this morning.
While the ground stop is currently slated to be reassessed hourly, travelers should prepare for a significant "traffic jam" once the fog lifts. Even after flights are cleared to land, the backlog of planes trying to arrive and depart simultaneously often leads to secondary gate holds and taxi delays.
A massive blanket of dense fog has settled over the Gulf Coast this morning, prompting the National Weather Service to issue Dense Fog Advisories for more than 22 million people from Southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
Visibility has plummeted to near-zero in several major hubs, including Houston, New Orleans, and Mobile, creating "pea soup" conditions that are slowing the Friday morning commute.
On major arteries like I-10, authorities are reporting hazardous driving conditions, with some areas seeing visibility of less than one-quarter mile.
This moisture-heavy air is the precursor to the massive storm system set to sweep through the South this weekend. While the fog is expected to thin out by mid-morning as temperatures rise, it is already causing a cascade of delays at regional airports.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued ground delays at Miami International Airport (MIA) this morning as low ceilings and patches of dense fog significantly reduce visibility across the airfield.
These low ceilings—the height of the lowest cloud layer above the ground—are forcing air traffic controllers to increase the spacing between arriving and departing aircraft for safety.
Currently, arriving flights are seeing average delays of 30 to 45 minutes, with some gate holds lasting longer as the morning departure bank is metered.
Travelers are advised that while the sun may be shining in other parts of South Florida, the specific atmospheric conditions at the airport are creating a bottleneck.
These "ceiling and visibility" (CIG/VIS) restrictions are common during the early morning hours in the winter months but are particularly impactful today given the high volume of Valentine's Day and Mardi Gras weekend travelers.
If you have a tight connection through Miami this morning, check your flight status directly with your carrier, as knock-on delays could persist even after the fog lifts and ceilings improve later today.
{{#rendered}}As we head into the heart of the weekend, the FOX Forecast Center is tracking a volatile setup across the South. For a multi-day severe weather event to take shape, meteorologists look for four main ingredients: moisture, instability, lift, and shear.
While this storm has plenty of power, the exact "recipe" is still coming together, and a few key factors will determine whether this weekend remains a rainy nuisance or turns into a more significant severe storm threat.
This weekend's threat will be powered by a "screaming" jet stream overhead. Strong vertical wind shear—the change in wind speed and direction with height—is present in spades. This ingredient is what allows ordinary thunderstorms to tilt, rotate, and become supercells, which are the primary drivers of tornadoes and large hail.
We are seeing a robust return of moisture from the Gulf of America. Dew points are expected to climb into the 60s across the Deep South. High humidity acts as high-octane fuel for storms; the higher the dew point, the more energy is available for the atmosphere to tap into.
A deep area of low pressure will slide out of the Southwest, providing the lift or the spark needed to shove that moist air upward into the cold upper atmosphere, igniting lines of storms.
But the chances of a major severe weather outbreak are low. The ultimate "X-factor" is the sun. If widespread clouds and morning rain persist, the atmosphere stays "capped" and cool, preventing the air from becoming unstable.
However, if the clouds break and the sun peeks through for even a few hours, temperatures will spike, and the instability (CAPE) could skyrocket, leading to a much more dangerous afternoon.
And in some areas, the very lowest slice of the atmosphere—the boundary layer—remains a bit too cool. If the air near the ground doesn't warm up enough to match the moisture levels, storms struggle to stay rooted to the ground, which can actually kill the risk of tornadoes even if wind shear is high.
Millions of Americans from Texas to Florida are at risk for seeing severe weather this weekend, so now is the time to make a plan for your family in the event that storms threaten your area.
A powerful disturbance is beginning to tap into unseasonably warm air and Gulf moisture tonight, setting the stage for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Western Oklahoma.
While the core of the multi-day storm system will peak over the weekend, Friday night serves as the opening act. FOX Weather meteorologists are closely monitoring a line of storms expected to develop after sunset, with the primary threats being damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to the size of quarters.
As these storms track eastward through the overnight hours, the risk for localized flash flooding will increase, particularly in low-lying areas of Northeast Oklahoma and North Texas.
Although the atmosphere isn't fully primed for a major severe weather outbreak tonight, the sheer energy of this system means anyone along the I-40 and I-20 corridors should remain weather-aware.
Plan ahead if you’re heading out for early Valentine's weekend festivities, and ensure your FOX Weather app alerts are turned on to receive real-time warnings as they are issued.
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