Live updates: Deadly storms charge east threatening 66 million with intense tornadoes, huge hail

The atmosphere surrounding the St. Louis metro is becoming increasingly volatile.

Meteorologists are tracking a surge of moisture—noted by dew points climbing into the upper 60s—colliding with powerful, twisting winds in the upper atmosphere.

The environment is forecast to be absurdly strong...

This combination creates a high-octane environment where any storm that develops can quickly become a supercell, the most dangerous type of thunderstorm capable of producing intense, long-track tornadoes and baseball-sized hail.

Because these favorable conditions are overlapping directly over the metropolitan area, the window between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. local time is particularly critical for the development of life-threatening weather.

While the threat of tornadoes often grabs the most attention, a dangerous flash flooding situation is steadily progressing across the heart of the Midwest.

A line of severe thunderstorms is currently pushing through central Illinois and into the St. Louis metropolitan area, dumping rain at a staggering rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

When storms train—meaning they follow the same path over the same neighborhoods like cars on a railroad track—rain totals can quickly skyrocket to 3 inches or more, making it impossible for storm drains to keep up.

The FOX Forecast Center is closely monitoring storms stretching from west-central Missouri into Illinois that are expected to linger along the I-70 corridor through the afternoon.

Because the ground is already saturated from morning rain, any additional downpours will likely run off immediately, creating a high risk for significant urban flooding in cities like St. Louis and Springfield.

If you encounter a flooded roadway, remember that it only takes a few inches of moving water to sweep a vehicle away; play it safe and find an alternate route.

Kansas City has experienced a staggering deluge over the last 24 hours, recording nearly a full month's worth of rain in a single day.

The torrential rain saturated the ground and overwhelmed local infrastructure, leading to the widespread flash flooding and high-water rescues seen across the metro area this morning.

A powerful line of severe thunderstorms is currently blasting through central Illinois, bringing the immediate threat of damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

This bowing segment of storms is moving rapidly eastward, prompting a flurry of warnings as it pummels communities with torrential rain and hail up to two inches in diameter.

Emergency officials are urging residents to stay indoors and away from windows as the leading edge of these storms crosses the state.

Weather balloons are high-altitude balloons equipped with a specialized instrument package called a radiosonde, which measures vital atmospheric data as it ascends.

During its flight, the balloon continuously transmits real-time information on temperature, humidity, and air pressure, while its movement allows meteorologists to track wind speed and direction at different heights.

We rely heavily on these launches because they provide a vertical slice of the atmosphere that satellites and ground stations simply cannot capture in such detail.

By understanding these upper-air conditions, forecasters can identify the exact "ingredients"—such as wind shear and instability—needed for tornadoes to form, making weather balloons an indispensable tool for providing accurate and timely warnings during severe weather outbreaks.

In response to the rapidly deteriorating weather forecast, St. Louis Public Schools have announced an early dismissal for all students and staff today.

To ensure the safety of the community before the most dangerous storms arrive, all schools will close two hours earlier than their regularly scheduled time.

Central Office operations will conclude at 3:00 p.m., followed by maintenance and security personnel at 4:00 p.m.

District officials confirmed that transportation services will be adjusted to match these new dismissal times and will remain in operation until every student has been safely delivered to their destination.

Parents and caregivers are encouraged to make necessary arrangements immediately as the city prepares for a high-end severe weather threat this afternoon.

Rounds of severe thunderstorms triggered flash flooding, prompting water rescues across Kansas City, Missouri early Monday, ahead of an even more dangerous threat this afternoon.

The Kansas City Fire Department said it has made at least 11 rescues from high-water areas as of this morning. Responding crews were able to move motorists from their vehicles to dry ground without the need for boats, and thankfully, no injuries were reported.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for a large portion of central and southern Illinois, effective until 4:00 p.m. CT today.

Forecasters are tracking a bowing line of storms that is expected to gain strength as the atmosphere warms and destabilizes throughout the afternoon.

The primary threats within this watch area include scattered damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail, with some stones potentially reaching 2 inches in diameter.

While wind and hail are the main concerns with this initial cluster, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as the system pushes eastward through the state.

In the heat of a severe weather outbreak, the terms "Tornado Watch" and "Tornado Warning" are often used interchangeably, but understanding the distinction is a critical part of your safety plan.

• A Tornado Watch means that the ingredients for a tornado are present in the atmosphere—think of it as having all the ingredients to bake a cake. During a watch, you should remain weather-aware, keep your phone charged, and know where your "safe spot" is, but you can generally continue your daily routine while keeping a close eye on the sky.
• A Tornado Warning, on the other hand, means the "cake is baked." This alert is issued when a tornado has actually been sighted by a spotter or indicated by weather radar. A warning is an immediate call to action; it means there is a direct threat to life and property.

When a warning is issued for your specific location, you should stop what you are doing and move to your pre-determined safe room immediately. While a watch covers large regions for several hours, a warning is a localized, high-urgency alarm that typically lasts for 30 to 45 minutes.

When a Tornado Warning is issued, seconds count, and your first priority is to put as many walls between you and the wind as possible.

The safest place to be is an underground storm cellar or a basement; however, if those aren't available, move to the lowest floor of a sturdy building and seek out a small, interior room without windows, such as a closet, hallway, or bathroom.

It is vital to remember that mobile homes and vehicles are never safe during a tornado, regardless of how they are anchored or parked.

If you are in a mobile home, you must evacuate to a pre-identified sturdy shelter immediately.

If you are caught on the road and cannot reach a building, your last resort is to park your car, keep your seatbelt on, and duck below the windows while covering your head with a blanket or your hands—or, if a significantly lower area like a ditch is available, exit the vehicle and lie flat there to let debris pass over you.

FOX Weather meteorologists Melanie Black and Marissa Torres are providing a deep dive into today’s significant threat escalation, following the Storm Prediction Center’s move to a Level 4 Risk.

The duo broke down the complex atmospheric ingredients coming together over the Mississippi Valley, explaining how the morning’s cloud cover is the "wild card" that could either fuel or dampen the potential for long-track tornadoes.

A powerful line of thunderstorms is currently crashing through Mid-Missouri, bringing a barrage of heavy rain and damaging wind gusts to the region. These storms are part of a broader morning wave that is steadily tracking east along the I-70 corridor, with the leading edge now pushing toward the Illinois border.

As these storm clusters move into Illinois, they are bringing the threat of 60 mph winds and localized flash flooding to areas like Jefferson City and Quincy.

Forecasters are closely watching this activity, as the rain and cloud cover left in its wake will play a critical role in determining how much the atmosphere can reload for a more significant severe weather outbreak expected later this afternoon.

When a tornado tears through a community, the first question often asked is, "How strong was it?"

To answer this, meteorologists use the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale, which became the official standard in the United States in 2007.

Unlike a hurricane's strength, which can be measured in real-time by aircraft or satellites, a tornado’s wind speed is almost always estimated after the fact.

Because most wind-measuring instruments are destroyed by a tornado's path, experts must work backward, acting as "weather detectives" to analyze the destruction left behind.

The process begins with a ground survey conducted by National Weather Service (NWS) experts. These teams examine "Damage Indicators"—a list of 28 specific structures and objects, ranging from small barns and residential homes to high-rise buildings and even hardwood trees.

By looking at how these indicators held up—for example, whether a house merely lost some roof shingles or was wiped clean off its foundation—surveyors can assign a Degree of Damage (DOD).

This DOD corresponds to a specific wind speed range. For instance, if a well-built home is completely leveled, it suggests wind speeds typical of an EF-4 or EF-5.

It is a common misconception that a tornado's physical size or its appearance on radar determines its rating; in reality, a massive "wedge" tornado that hits an open field may only be rated an EF-0, while a small, thin "rope" tornado that hits a town can receive a much higher rating based on the structures it impacts.

This meticulous survey process ensures that every tornado is categorized accurately, helping engineers build safer structures and helping meteorologists better understand these violent storms.

Today marks 15 years since the catastrophic April 27, 2011, Super Tornado Outbreak, a day that remains the deadliest and most destructive severe weather event in modern American history.

Over the course of that tragic Wednesday, a staggering 360 tornadoes touched down across 26 states, claiming 321 lives—including 240 in Alabama alone—and forever transforming cities like Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.

As communities across the South pause to remember the lives lost and the $12 billion in damages incurred, the milestone serves as a somber backdrop to today's active weather.

While today's setup in the Midwest is not expected to reach the historic scale of 2011, meteorologists note that the 2011 outbreak remains the ultimate benchmark for atmospheric volatility, reminding residents of the critical importance of being weather-ready during the spring season.

The Kansas City Fire Department has been on the front lines of this morning’s flash flooding, responding to 11 water rescues beginning just before 6 a.m. CT.

Most of these incidents were concentrated in the city's notorious high-water areas, where responding crews were able to assist drivers from their vehicles and lead them to dry ground.

Fortunately, no boats were required for these operations, and officials report that there have been no injuries or ambulance transports as a result of the flooding so far.

While the ingredients for a significant outbreak are present, there are a few saving graces that could significantly diminish the danger.

The most critical factor is the lingering impact of this morning’s rain and cloud cover; if the clouds fail to break by early afternoon, the sun won't be able to recharge the atmosphere with the heat needed to fuel explosive supercells. This would leave the air mass more stable and potentially capped, preventing the most dangerous storms from ever reaching their full tornadic potential.

Additionally, the early arrival of the main storm line could be a hidden blessing. If the morning clusters of rain push further south than expected, they could effectively rob the region of the moisture and energy required for intense tornadoes.

For millions across the Midwest, a persistent grey, rainy afternoon would be the best-case scenario, as it would act as a wet blanket on the volatile setup and keep the most destructive winds and tornadoes from developing.

While the Heartland has endured a relentless stretch of severe weather over the last several days—including a destructive EF-4 in Oklahoma this past weekend—today’s setup carries a unique and more dangerous signature.

The primary driver is the sheer volatility of the air mass currently surging into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Unlike previous rounds that were hampered by limited moisture or weaker wind shear, today features a perfect match of high-octane instability and a powerful low-level jet.

This creates a rare environment where individual supercells can remain isolated and discrete for hours, rather than quickly clumping into a less-tornadic line, allowing them to maximize their potential for producing intense, long-track tornadoes.

The second factor making today potentially the worst of the stretch is the presence of a sharp surface triple point near the Missouri-Illinois border. This localized area of extreme atmospheric spin acts as a focal point for storm initiation, right as the afternoon sun provides maximum heating to recharge the atmosphere following morning rain.

With dew points climbing into the upper 60s and 70s meeting intense upper-level winds, the FOX Forecast Center warns that the ceiling for storm intensity today is significantly higher than what we’ve seen in recent days.

For major population centers like St. Louis and Springfield, this translates to a window where the threat for EF-3 or stronger tornadoes is at its highest frequency for the entire month.

A dire flash flooding situation is unfolding across the Kansas City metro this morning, with local law enforcement reporting multiple ongoing water rescues as torrential rains overwhelm urban drainage systems.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Warning for the entire city after 1 to 3 inches of rain fell in a short window.

The morning commute has been paralyzed by the rising waters, particularly along Interstate 70 near Prospect Avenue, where stranded vehicles have caused massive traffic backups into downtown.

Several roads are currently closed, and officials are urging residents to "turn around, don't drown," as emergency crews work to reach those caught in the rapidly rising floodwaters.

Intense thunderstorms are currently tearing through Missouri. These storms have already triggered Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a few Tornado Warnings for counties around the Kansas City metro, bringing threats of 60 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail.

Beyond the wind and hail, these storms are dumping torrential rain, with some areas already reporting staggering totals of 3 to 5 inches.

As the line charges eastward toward the I-70 corridor, the primary concern remains its ability to produce embedded tornadoes and significant flash flooding through the morning hours.