"The National Weather Service is predicting strong storms could pass through Kane County late this afternoon (3/10/26) into the evening hours. Stay on top of changing weather conditions by signing up for Kane County’s free public safety alert system."
After a record-breaking Monday that saw the temperature climb into the low 70s, Chicago is experiencing a dramatic reality check today.
Temperatures are tumbling back into the 40s and 50s as a sharp cold front cuts through the region, acting as the tripwire for an arriving severe weather threat.
While the city is feeling the chill right now, don't let the cooling air fool you—the setup is actually priming the atmosphere for damaging hail.
That front will serve as the focus for powerful storms to erupt later this afternoon and evening. As storms move north of the front into Chicago, they'll become "elevated," surviving above that layer of cool, stable air near the ground, drawing their energy from warmer air higher up in the atmosphere rather than from the surface.
Storms that move into this colder air will be capable of dropping hail and torrential rain well after sunset.
If you are north of I-80, the dropping temperatures signal that your primary risk is this windshield-shattering hail, while areas just to the south remain in the "warm sector" where the tornado threat is highest.
{{#rendered}}Evan Bentley, a Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, discussed Tuesday's elevated severe weather risk for the Midwest and Texas with FOX Weather Command.
The SPC has placed parts of north-central Illinois and extreme southern Michigan in the risk area for intense (EF-3+) tornadoes.
This is the first time this level of tornado threat has been issued since the SPC debuted its revamped severe weather forecast last week.
The SPC also placed part of the Texas Plains under the highest threat for very large hail. It also marks the first forecast that has explicitly called for softball-size hail since last week's introduction of Conditional Intensity Groups, which aim to better highlight the types of severe weather people can expect.
The atmosphere over the central United States is undergoing a dramatic transformation this morning, setting the stage for a dangerous bimodal severe weather outbreak. This means instead of one single storm area, we are tracking two distinct bullseyes where the ingredients for violent weather are most concentrated: the Mid-Mississippi Valley (including Chicago and St. Louis) and the Southern Plains (focusing on West Texas).
A split-flow pattern in the jet stream is the culprit, pulling one system across the northern Rockies and another through Mexico. As these two features phase together, they are opening the floodgates for a surge of high-octane moisture from the Gulf of America, creating a highly unstable environment across a massive 1,500-mile stretch of the country.
In the Midwest, the primary concern is the interaction between a sharpening stalled front and a strengthening low-level jet—a river of fast-moving air just above the surface.
This jet will act as a massive twist in the atmosphere, significantly elongating the hodograph (the tool we use to measure how winds change with height).
This setup is classic for the development of discrete supercells—individual, rotating storms that don't have to compete for energy.
South of the front, where temperatures are soaring into the 80s, these supercells will have access to over 2,000 J/kg of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy). You can think of CAPE as the "explosiveness" of the air; anything over 1,000 is high, so today’s values are well into the danger zone, supporting strong to intense tornadoes (EF-2 or higher) and hail larger than 2 inches.
Meanwhile, down in Texas, the threat is being driven by a dryline—the sharp boundary where bone-dry desert air from the west crashes into the humid air to the east.
Because the air high above Texas is exceptionally cold today, any storm that pops along this boundary will have incredible upward speed. This allows hail stones to stay suspended in the frigid upper atmosphere for a long time, growing into massive, softball-sized chunks before gravity finally pulls them down.
While the tornado risk in Texas is more isolated than in the Midwest, the sheer size of the hail and the potential for 70 mph straight-line winds as storms merge into a line this evening makes this a life-safety event for the Lone Star State.
As a severe weather outbreak targets the Midwest today, forecasters are warning that EF-3 tornadoes are a distinct possibility.
The Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale is the tool meteorologists use to rate a tornado's intensity, but it isn't based on live wind measurements; instead, it's a damage scale that uses 28 different indicators—like houses, schools, and trees—to estimate how fast the winds were blowing.
An EF-3 rating is classified as 'severe' damage, with estimated 3-second wind gusts between 136 and 165 mph.
At this intensity, entire stories of well-constructed homes can be destroyed, heavy cars can be lifted and thrown, and large buildings like shopping malls can sustain significant structural damage.
Because these ratings are based on the destruction left behind, National Weather Service survey teams go out in the days after a storm to determine if the damage matches the fingerprints of an EF-3 or higher.
{{#rendered}}Chicago is bracing for a volatile afternoon and evening as severe thunderstorms take aim on the region. Following a morning of dense fog and record-breaking warmth, the atmosphere is now energizing for a potential severe weather outbreak.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a large portion of the metro area under a Level 3 of 5 risk zone for severe storms, with the primary threats being hail the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts over 60 mph.
The most dangerous window for the Windy City is expected between 4:00 p.m. and midnight.
While everyone in the region should be on alert, meteorologists are particularly concerned about areas south of I-80, including Kankakee and Joliet, where the ingredients for rotating storms are strongest. In these southern suburbs, the risk includes not only destructive hail but also the potential for violent tornadoes.
As a stationary front settles near the city, it will act as a dividing line: North of the front (including the city center), the main threat will be large hail that could dent cars and damage roofs. South of that line, all hazards—including tornadoes and flash flooding—are on the table.
The Storm Prediction Center has upped the ante for today's tornado threat, officially highlighting a risk for violent tornadoes (EF-3 or higher) across parts of the Midwest.
This heightened alert covers a corridor from northern Illinois to northern Indiana, where the atmospheric ingredients are coming together for a dangerous late-afternoon outbreak.
Right now, a powerful storm system is brewing as a shortwave trough—a fast-moving disturbance high in the atmosphere—pushes toward the Midwest.
This system is pulling a surface low across the Heartland, which is sharpening a stalled weather front stretching into southern Wisconsin and Michigan. Think of this front like a battle line: to the north, winds are cold and bracing, while to the south, the atmosphere is fueling up with record warmth and humidity.
As the air converges or crashes together along this line, it will force the air upward, acting as the spark to ignite explosive thunderstorms by late afternoon.
The air south of this boundary is becoming unstable, meaning it is loaded with CAPE—essentially the high-octane gasoline that thunderstorms use for power. With temperatures in the 80s and high humidity, any storm that forms will likely become a supercell, a dangerous, rotating thunderstorm capable of all severe hazards.
Forecasters are particularly concerned with what they're seeing in the hodographs, which is a technical way of measuring how the wind changes speed and direction as you go higher in the sky.
As evening approaches, this twist in the atmosphere will increase significantly, raising the risk for strong to intense tornadoes and giant hail larger than 2 inches in diameter across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and southwest Michigan.
The atmosphere is fueling up this morning as a powerful low-level jet—a fast-moving ribbon of air just above the earth's surface—acts like a high-speed conveyor belt, streaming rich moisture north from the Gulf of America.
This surge of warm, sticky air is pushing dew points into the 60s across the Heartland, providing the critical energy needed to power today's severe storms.
As this humid air collides with the arriving cold front, it creates a highly unstable environment known as instability.
Think of this Gulf moisture as the high-octane gasoline for the atmosphere; the more moisture we have in place this morning, the more explosive the storms will be once the afternoon heating provides the spark.
{{#rendered}}FOX Weather breaks down the deadly threat behind nighttime twisters. For those in today's threat zone, now is the time to prepare.
Michigan is back on high alert today as a new, potent storm system threatens the same communities still reeling from last week’s historic violence.
This renewed risk comes just days after the National Weather Service confirmed that an EF-3 tornado devastated Union City on March 6, marking the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado ever recorded in Michigan's history.
FOX Weather meteorologist Haley Meier is LIVE in Michigan as communities recover ahead of today's looming severe storm threat.
The Lone Star State is in for a bumpy Tuesday as a volatile weather setup takes aim at the Southern Plains.
While the Midwest is bracing for a tornado threat, the FOX Forecast Center is warning Texans that giant, destructive hail will be the headline story.
The trouble starts this afternoon along the dryline—the boundary where dry, desert air from the west pushes into the humid, sticky air from the Gulf. This clash is expected to ignite a series of powerful supercell thunderstorms that could drop ice stones ranging from the size of golf balls to hen eggs or even baseballs.
The highest risk for these windshield-shattering stones stretches from the Texas Panhandle down through the Rio Grande, including cities like Midland, Abilene, and Del Rio.
Because the air high above the ground is exceptionally chilly today, these storms have the perfect environment to keep hail suspended in the sky until it grows to dangerous sizes.
While the storms may start out isolated, they will likely merge into a fast-moving line by early evening, shifting the threat to 70 mph wind gusts and heavy rain for the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.
{{#rendered}}Just days after a deadly stretch of weather, the FOX Forecast Center is tracking a classic spring-time setup that places millions of Americans in the crosshairs of another severe weather outbreak.
While we are watching a massive area from the Great Lakes down to the Rio Grande, two specific bullseyes have emerged where the ingredients for strong tornadoes (EF-2 or higher) are most concerning: a corridor from northeast Missouri through northern Illinois and into northwest Indiana, and a separate zone across the Texas Plains.
A recipe for tornadoes
To get a tornado, you need a very specific set of ingredients to come together at exactly the same time. Think of it like a recipe where the oven is the heat of the day and the ingredients are:
- Fuel (instability): We have record-breaking warmth and high humidity (dew points in the 60s) surging north from the Gulf. This creates "CAPE," which is essentially the octane level of the atmosphere. Today, that octane is very high, meaning any storm that starts has plenty of energy to grow tall and strong.
- The spark (lift): Two separate troughs, or dips in the jet stream, are acting as the spark. These systems pull the air upward, breaking the cap—a layer of warm air that normally acts like a lid to keep storms from forming. Once that lid pops this afternoon, storms will explode rapidly.
- The spin (wind shear): This is the most critical part for tornadoes. Today, winds near the ground are blowing from the south, while winds higher up are screaming out of the west. This change in wind speed and direction with height is called wind shear. It creates a rolling motion in the atmosphere that a strong storm can stand up vertically, causing the entire thunderstorm to rotate.
Where the risk is highest
In the Midwest, the primary concern is the development of discrete supercells—isolated, rotating giants that travel on their own.
Because they aren't crowded by other storms, they can soak up all the atmospheric energy for themselves, which is why they are the most likely to produce long-track, strong tornadoes.
In Texas, while the tornado risk is more isolated, the dryline (the boundary between desert air and humid air) will trigger storms capable of baseball-sized hail and intense wind gusts.
Millions of residents in some of America’s largest metro areas are facing a high-stakes weather day as a massive storm system takes aim at both the Midwest and the Southern Plains.
In Chicago, the record-breaking 70-degree warmth of Monday is being replaced by a much more menacing setup. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a Level 3 of 5 severe storm threat, with the most dangerous conditions expected to develop between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. CT.
While the city itself is on high alert for damaging winds and large hail, the threat of strong tornadoes (EF-2 or higher) is particularly elevated for communities just south of I-80.
This is a 'pop the cap' scenario, where the spring-like heat acts as fuel for explosive supercell development that could impact the evening commute and persist well into the night.
Farther south, Dallas and the North Texas region are bracing for a different but equally dangerous flavor of severe weather.
As a dryline sharpens across West Texas, individual discrete storms are expected to ignite and charge toward the I-35 corridor.
For Dallas, the primary concern today is giant, destructive hail that could reach the size of baseballs, along with the risk of a few tornadoes.
Unlike typical storms that weaken after sunset, a surging low-level jet will likely keep these storms breathing long after dark, increasing the risk for nocturnal tornadoes—which are notoriously difficult to see and twice as deadly.
Whether you are in the Windy City or the Big D, today is the day to have your FOX Weather App push notifications enabled and a clear plan to reach your safe space the moment a warning is issued.
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